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There's something endearing about Hull City walking into Fulham's ground on 17 October with no wins in their last five matches. The Tigers have drawn three of those five — a 2–2 with Everton at home on 11 October, a 2–2 at Chelsea on 12 September, and a 0–0 against Aston Villa on 5 September — but the two losses (1–2 at Newcastle and 0–1 at Sunderland in the League Cup) remind us the results column still reads 0W 3D 2L. Their points per game over that stretch is 0.6, and they've scored just 5 goals while conceding 7.
The good news for the little guys is that Hull City's away record over the last 20 games is not as bleak as the recent form suggests: 8 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses, with 1.45 points per game. They score 1.25 per game on the road and concede 1.1, and they've kept clean sheets in 6 of those 20 away fixtures. That's a team that can be competitive on the road, even if the last five haven't shown it.
Fulham, meanwhile, are the bookmakers' favourites at 1.73, but their recent form is far from convincing. They lost 1–2 at Ipswich on 10 October, drew 1–1 with Manchester United at home on 20 September, and lost 2–3 to Crystal Palace at home on 5 September. Their last five gives them 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses — 1.0 points per game. At home over 20 games, Fulham have won 10, drawn 2, and lost 8, scoring 1.5 per game but conceding 1.15. That 8-loss figure at home is a crack in the armour that the market price doesn't fully reflect.
The head-to-head is entirely historical — the most recent meeting was in January 2023, a 0–2 FA Cup win for Fulham at Hull's ground. All five listed meetings are 3 to 6 years old, so they tell us nothing about current form. What they do show is that Fulham won 4 of those 5, but that's a relic, not a trend.
The counter-argument for the underdog is real: Hull City's 5 draws in their last ten games and their 6 BTTS-no results in the same stretch suggest a team that can park the bus and survive. Fulham's home record includes 8 losses in 20, and their recent home results (1–1 with United, 2–3 to Palace) show they're not dominant. But the honest truth is that Fulham's 10 wins in 20 home games and 1.5 goals per game at home still make them the stronger side in this fixture, and Hull City's 0 wins in 5 recent games is a hard reality to ignore.
Key Points:
- Hull City's last five: 0W 3D 2L, 0.6 ppg, 5 scored, 7 conceded
- Fulham's last five: 1W 2D 2L, 1.0 ppg, 7 scored, 8 conceded
- Hull City's 20-game away record: 8W 5D 7L, 1.45 ppg
- Fulham's 20-game home record: 10W 2D 8L, 1.6 ppg
- Head-to-head is entirely historical (most recent meeting: January 2023)
I've looked for value in the underdog here, and I can't find it. The available prices on the little guy's side simply don't offer enough edge against what the football evidence supports. No Bet.