Preview
Value VinnyFulham host Hull City on 17 October in the Premier League, and the numbers tell a clear story. At home over their last 20 games, Fulham have won 10, drawn 2 and lost 8, averaging 1.6 points per game and 1.5 goals per game. Hull City's away record over 20 games sits at 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses, with 1.45 points per game and 1.25 goals per game. The gap is modest in those venue records, but it widens considerably when you look at what is happening right now.
Hull City have not won in their last five matches. Three draws and two losses, 0.6 points per game, and just 5 goals scored across those five. Their most recent outing was a 2–2 draw at home against Everton on 11 October, but before that they were beaten 2–1 at Newcastle on 19 September and 1–0 at Sunderland in the League Cup on 8 September. The pattern is a side that struggles to find a winner, particularly on the road, and their last 10 games across all venues show only 2 wins from 10.
Fulham's form is not sparkling either — one win, two draws and two losses in their last five — but the quality of those results matters. They drew 1–1 with Manchester United at home on 20 September, held Liverpool to a 0–0 away on 12 September, and beat West Ham 3–2 away in the League Cup on 15 September. The 2–1 loss to Ipswich on 10 October is the blemish, but the numbers from their last 10 games show 1.5 goals scored per game, which is the higher scoring rate of the two sides in this fixture. Hull City, by contrast, have managed just 0.9 goals per game over their last 10.
The head-to-head is entirely historical. The last meeting was in January 2023, a 2–0 Fulham win at Hull in the FA Cup, and all five listed meetings date from 2019 to 2023. I am not treating those as current form. What they do show is that Fulham won four of those five, including three away victories at Hull's ground. The one Hull win came at Fulham's ground in November 2019, a 3–0 result.
The counter-argument is straightforward. Fulham's home form in the last five matches is a 1–1 draw with Manchester United and a 2–3 loss to Crystal Palace — no home wins in that stretch. Hull City's away record over 20 games does include 8 wins, so they are capable of winning on the road, and the 2–2 draw at Everton on 11 October shows they can score. The 0–0 draw with Aston Villa on 5 September also reminds us that low-scoring affairs are possible.
But the weight of evidence — Fulham's home record, Hull City's winless run, the scoring gap of 1.5 to 0.9 per game over the last 10 — all points the same way. The market prices Fulham's win at 57.80%, but the football evidence suggests the true probability sits higher, closer to 63%. That is the gap I am hunting, and it is the kind of edge that pays over a season.
Key Points:
- Fulham's home record: 10W 2D 8L in 20 games, 1.6 PPG, 1.5 goals per game
- Hull City: 0 wins in last 5 matches, 0.6 PPG, 5 goals scored
- Scoring gap: Fulham 1.5 goals per game (last 10) vs Hull City 0.9
- Head-to-head is entirely historical (last meeting January 2023); Fulham won 4 of 5 listed
- Hull City's away record: 8W 5D 7L in 20, but current form is poor
The numbers say Fulham home win at 1.73.