Fulham vs Tottenham Prediction

Alright mate, grab a pint and let's have a butcher's at this Sunday afternoon clash down by the Thames. Fulham are hosting Tottenham at Craven Cottage, and on paper, this looks like a right opportunity for the Cottagers to bag three points.

Here's the thing – Fulham are sitting pretty in 10th place on 37 points, and their recent form is decent enough. They've won five of their last ten, including a cracking 3-1 away at Sunderland and a proper battling 2-1 win against Chelsea at home. Yeah, they took a pasting off Man City (3-0) and lost narrowly to Man United (3-2) and Everton (2-1), but those were against sides with a bit about them. At home, they're averaging two goals a game and winning 60% of the time recently. That's proper home advantage.

Now, Tottenham? Blimey, they're in a right state. Sitting 16th with just 29 points from 27 games – that's relegation form, no two ways about it. They've only won two of their last ten matches, losing six of them. They got absolutely battered 4-1 by Arsenal recently, lost 2-0 to Man United, and even got turned over 3-2 by Bournemouth. The only wins they've managed were in Europe against Frankfurt and Dortmund, but in the league? It's been a shambles. They're conceding nearly two goals a game recently and their trends are all pointing downwards.

The head-to-head is fairly balanced over the years – Spurs edge it 4-3 with a couple of draws – but Fulham have held their own at the Cottage with a 40% win rate in this fixture. The last meeting finished 2-1, so it's usually competitive, but current form tells a different story.

Looking at the goal data, we can expect a few in this one. Fulham haven't kept a clean sheet in their last ten games (0%), while Spurs have managed a couple but are leaking 1.9 goals per game recently. The goal expectancies have this down for over three goals total (1.88 vs 1.45), and both teams have seen BTTS in 70-80% of their recent matches.

Key Points:

• Fulham have won 60% of their last five home games, scoring exactly 2 goals per game on average at Craven Cottage

• Tottenham have lost six of their last ten matches and are on a declining trend in both goals scored and points

• Fulham's recent wins include 3-1 at Sunderland and 2-1 vs Chelsea – they're beating the teams around them

• Spurs have conceded 19 goals in their last 10 games (1.9 per game) and lost 4-1 to Arsenal in their most recent away day

• Fulham have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 10 games, suggesting Tottenham could find the net, but Fulham's firepower should be enough

The Bet:

The bookies have Fulham at 2.10 to win this, and I'm having some of that. With Tottenham's league form in the toilet and Fulham solid at home, the maths is simple – there's value in backing the home side. Spurs might nick one given Fulham's dodgy defensive record (no clean sheets in ten), but Fulham's attack averaging two a game at home against a defence conceding nearly two a game should see them through. Back the Cottagers to send the Spurs fans home miserable.