Gateshead vs Eastleigh Prediction

Right then, let's have a look at this one. Gateshead at home to Eastleigh. It's not exactly the fixture that gets the pulse racing, is it? We've got two teams down the wrong end of the National League table having a right old scrap to try and get some points on the board.

Gateshead are having a proper nightmare. They're 21st, and their form is about as welcome as a hole in the roof. One win in their last ten games, and that was in the FA Cup. At home? It's even worse. No wins in their last six at their own gaff, losing five of them. They're conceding goals for fun – 2.5 a game at home – and scoring barely a whisper, just 0.33 a game. Look at the scores: 0-3, 0-2, 0-3, 0-2, 0-4. They're getting turned over week in, week out. It's grim up north for them at the minute.

Eastleigh aren't exactly setting the world alight either, sitting 17th. They've managed two wins in their last ten, but their away form is just as bad as Gateshead's home form. No wins in their last four on the road, with three losses and a draw. They only score half a goal a game away from home. Their last away win in the league? You'd have to go back a while. They did manage a decent 1-1 draw at Carlisle a few weeks back, but that's about as good as it gets.

So what happens when a stoppable force meets a movable object? History says it might just be a draw. They've played nine times, with three draws. The last two times Eastleigh have gone to Gateshead, it's finished 1-1. Both teams are struggling to win games, full stop. Gateshead can't win at home, Eastleigh can't win away. The maths starts pointing in one direction.

The bookies have it as a coin toss, with Eastleigh ever so slight favourites at 2.45. The draw is out at 3.40. Now, my little calculator tells me that price implies about a 29% chance of a draw. Given what we've seen, I reckon the chance is higher than that. When neither side fancies it and both are leaking goals but can't score many, a scrappy 1-1 or even a 0-0 is on the cards.

Key Points:

Gateshead are winless in their last six home games (D1 L5), conceding 2.5 goals per game on average.

Eastleigh are winless in their last four away games (D1 L3), scoring just 0.5 goals per game on the road.

The last two head-to-head matches at Gateshead have both ended 1-1.

Both teams are in the bottom six for form over the last ten matches.

Sometimes you've got to look for the value where others might not. This has all the hallmarks of a proper, gritty, low-quality draw. Neither team inspires confidence to win, so I'm backing them to cancel each other out. The price on the draw is just too tempting to ignore.