Gent vs Anderlecht Prediction

Right, so we've got Gent hosting Anderlecht on 25 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a clear shape to it.

Gent at home are the ones to back, and here's why. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 9, drawn 8 and lost just 3, picking up 1.75 points per game. They've kept 10 clean sheets in those 20 and conceded just 0.7 a game. That's a solid defensive base to build on. Look at the head-to-head at this ground and it's 1 win and 1 draw from the two recent meetings — the 4–2 thrashing back in January and the 1–1 draw in May. Gent haven't lost here to Anderlecht in the last two go-rounds.

Their recent form is decent too. Three wins, a draw and a loss in the last five, with the only defeat coming 0–2 at Braga in Europe three days ago. In the league, they've been cracking on — 2–0 at Zulte Waregem and 2–1 against Standard Liege at home. The 3–3 draw at Rochefort in the cup was a bit of a scrap, but that's a different competition.

Now, the counter-argument. Anderlecht have been scoring. They've netted 9 goals in their last five, averaging 1.8 a game, and they came in with a 3–0 win at Jagiellonia just three days ago. Their away record over 20 games shows 8 wins and 1.45 goals per game, so they're not a team that sits back and waits. They've also kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 across all venues, which is more than Gent's 4.

But here's the thing — Anderlecht's away record is 8W 4D 8L. Eight losses in 20 away games is a lot, and they've conceded 1.4 a game on the road. Gent's home defence at 0.7 conceded per game is a world away from that. The head-to-head at this venue tells the same story: Gent have won or drawn both recent meetings here. The market prices Gent at 2.44 for the win, which puts them at about 41%. I'd rate their chance closer to 53%, which means there's genuine value in the home side.

Key Points:

• Gent's home record: 9W 8D 3L in 20 games, 0.7 conceded per game, 10 clean sheets

• Head-to-head at Gent's ground: 1W 1D in the last two recent meetings

• Anderlecht's away record: 8W 4D 8L, 1.4 conceded per game

• Gent's last 5: 3W 1D 1L; Anderlecht's last 5: 3W 0D 2L

• Market prices Gent at 41%; the evidence supports a higher probability

My pick: Gent home win.