Gillingham vs Port Vale Prediction

Right, so we've got Gillingham hosting Port Vale on 20 October in League Two, and I'm looking at this one with my beer in hand and thinking about who's going to keep their shirt dry.

Port Vale are the team that's been doing the talking lately. Three wins on the bounce, four goals scored, and not a single goal conceded. That's a run that makes you sit up and take notice. Their last five games show 3W 1D 1L at 2 points per game, and in their last ten across all venues they've only gone over 2.5 goals once. Four of their last five saw at least one team fail to score. That's a team keeping things tight and controlled, and it's hard to ignore when you're picking a side.

Now, Gillingham at home are not the most comfortable of hosts. Over their last 20 home games they've managed 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses, conceding 1.85 per game. They just lost 1-3 at Accrington ST three days before this one, and before that they drew 0-0 at home to Newport County. Two of their last five saw them fail to score at all. So the home side are not exactly firing on all cylinders, and that 3-1 loss at Accrington still stings.

The counter-argument, though, is that Port Vale's away record is not pretty. Over 20 away games they've won 6, drawn 1 and lost 13, at 0.95 points per game. That's a team that struggles on the road. Gillingham's home record, while not great, is at least a win in 7 of 20, and they've scored 1.1 per game at home. And the head-to-head here is entirely historical — no meetings within the last 12 months — so we can't lean on that for any edge. The older games go back as far as 2012, and they dilute any current form picture.

What I'm seeing is a Port Vale side that's been keeping things tight and clean, meeting a Gillingham side that's been inconsistent and just took a 3-1 beating. The numbers on Port Vale's recent form — 0 conceded in the last three, 5 clean sheets in 10, 7 of 10 BTTS no — tell me this is a low-scoring affair where at least one team stays blank. Gillingham failed to score in 2 of their last 5, and their home record shows 11 of 20 games where at least one side went blank. I reckon the chances are good that one of these shirts stays dry.

Key Points:

• Port Vale have won their last 3, scoring 4 and conceding 0

• Port Vale's last 5 games all finished under 2.5 goals, with 4 of 5 seeing at least one team fail to score

• Gillingham's home record over 20 games: 7W 3D 10L, conceding 1.85 per game

• Gillingham failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches

• The head-to-head is entirely historical with no meetings in the last 12 months

My pick: both teams not to score.