Preview
PajimonLook, I'll be straight with you — this one's got me scratching my head a bit, but the numbers don't lie, and the numbers say Gimnasia M. should be the ones putting their name on the scoreboard at home.
Gimnasia M. have been cooking at home. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 12, drawn 4 and lost just 4. That's 2 points per game, scoring 1.2 a game and conceding only 0.65. Ten clean sheets in 20 home games — that's half the time they've kept a clean sheet. They drew 2–2 with Boca Juniors at home on 5 September and beat Independiente 3–0 away on 30 August. The home record is the strongest thing in this fixture, and it's not close. Gimnasia's expected goals per game over their last seven matches with xG data is 1.02, compared to Newells' 0.54 over their last seven matches with xG data. That's a meaningful gap in chance creation.
Now, I'll give you the counter-argument because I'm not a fool. Gimnasia's last five games have been 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses. They lost 0–3 to Estudiantes L.P. on 5 October, just seven days before this kickoff, and they failed to score in three of those five. Their current run is a loss. So the home record is strong, but the recent form is a bit wobbly, like a braai that's not quite got the coals going yet.
Newells Old Boys, on the other hand, have been solid. One win and four draws in their last five — no losses. They beat Platense 1–0 on 20 September and drew 0–0 with Lanus on 3 October. Five straight games under 2.5 goals. Three clean sheets in five. They're not scoring a lot — 0.6 goals per game in the last five — but they're keeping it tight.
But here's the thing: Newells' away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses. That's 1 point per game, conceding 1.8 a game. Only 3 clean sheets in 20 away games. That's a team that struggles on the road, and it's not a new problem — it spans 13 months.
The head-to-head is thin. One meeting in the last 12 months, on 21 March 2026 at Newells' ground, where Newells won 1–0. No meetings at Gimnasia's ground in that period. So the H2H is dated and doesn't really tell us much. We have to lean on the home and away records and current form.
Key Points:
- Gimnasia M. home record: 12W 4D 4L in 20 games, 2 pts/game, 10 clean sheets
- Newells Old Boys away record: 5W 5D 10L in 20 games, 1 pt/game, 3 clean sheets
- Gimnasia lost 0–3 to Estudiantes on 5 October; failed to score in 3 of last 5
- Newells: 1W 4D 0L in last 5, 5/5 under 2.5, 3 clean sheets
- H2H: 1 meeting in 12 months (Newells 1–0 at their ground, 21 March 2026)
The home record is the strongest evidence here. Gimnasia M. have won 12 of their last 20 home games and Newells Old Boys have won just 5 of their last 20 away games. The market has Gimnasia at 2.3, which prices them at 43.48%. My read is that Gimnasia M. are the slight favourites at home, and I rate their chance of winning above the market's percentage.
My pick: Gimnasia M. home win.