Girona vs Osasuna Prediction

Right then, let's have a butcher's at this La Liga clash. It's 17th-placed Girona hosting 12th-placed Osasuna. Neither side is setting the world alight, but with just one point separating them, this is a proper six-pointer down the bottom. A win for either could see them climb a few places and breathe easier.

Girona's form has picked up a bit lately, I'll give 'em that. In their last three, they've beaten Mallorca 2-1 away and Real Sociedad 2-1 away – two decent results against mid-table sides. Sure, they got walloped 0-3 at home by a very good Atletico Madrid, but who hasn't? The worrying bit is their home form. From their last three at their own gaff, they've scored just 0.67 goals per game on average. They did hold Real Madrid to a 1-1 draw back in November, mind, so they can dig in.

Osasuna are a funny old side. At home, they can be decent – they smashed Alaves 3-0 and beat Levante 2-0 recently. But on their travels? Not so clever. Their last six away have seen just one win, with three draws and two losses. They got beat 2-0 at Barcelona (no shame there) and 1-0 at Sevilla. They did manage a 2-2 draw at Mallorca, showing they can score on the road, but they also conceded twice.

Now, the head-to-head makes for interesting reading. Girona have been a bit of a bogey team for Osasuna at home. In their last five meetings at Girona's place, it's three wins and two draws for the hosts. Osasuna haven't won there in the data we've got. That's a mental hurdle, that is.

Let's look at the numbers. Girona average 1.00 goal scored and 1.50 conceded over their last ten. Osasuna average 1.50 scored and 1.30 conceded. Both sides have leaky defences, and both have shown they can find the net. Crucially, Girona have seen both teams score in 70% of their last ten games. Osasuna? It's 50%. Put it together, and the chances of both nets bulging look pretty good.

The stats back it up. Osasuna average more shots and shots on target than Girona, but Girona keep the ball better and pass more accurately. It sets up a clash of styles: Osasuna might have a go, while Girona try to control things. With Girona's defence conceding 1.33 goals per game at home and Osasuna's away defence letting in 1.50 per game, chances will likely fall at both ends.

Key Points:

Form: Girona are improving (W2, L1 in last 3), but poor at home. Osasuna are shaky away (1 win in last 6).

Head-to-Head: Girona are unbeaten at home vs Osasuna in recent history (3 wins, 2 draws).

Goals: Both teams score in 70% of Girona's last 10 games. Osasuna score 1.33 goals per away game.

Defence: Girona concede 1.50 goals per game on average. Osasuna concede 1.30.

• Odds Value: The market offers 1.80 for Both Teams to Score. Our maths suggests that's a touch of value.

All in all, this has the feel of a tense, mid-table battle where neither side will want to lose. But with both defences looking vulnerable and both attacks capable, I fancy we'll see goals at both ends. The historical trend and recent form point towards a game where both teams score.

My Tip: Both Teams to Score - Yes. The price looks fair for a bet that hits more often than not in Girona's games.