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Right, so we've got Gremio hosting Cruzeiro on 18 October, and I'll be honest — this one's got me scratching my head a bit. Gremio's home record over the last 20 games at their ground is 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses, with 1.35 goals scored per game and just 0.85 conceded. That's a solid base. They've kept 8 clean sheets in those 20 home fixtures, which tells you the backline at home is doing its job. But here's the rub: their last five matches across all venues are 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses. They've drawn their last three — 1-1 with Internacional at home, 1-1 at Remo, and 0-0 with Palmeiras at home. That's a team that's grinding out results but not actually winning. Their points per game over the last 10 is just 1.0, and they've scored 1.1 per game while conceding 1.1. The xG numbers back that up too — 0.73 created per game over five matches with data, while opponents have generated 1.78 against them. They're not creating enough to win.
Now flip it to Cruzeiro. Their last five is 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, and they've scored 11 goals in those games — 2.2 per game. That's a different animal. Over their last 10 matches they've scored 1.7 per game and conceded 1.7, which means the games are open. Four of their last five went over 2.5 goals. The xG data on three recent games shows 1.3 created per game for them, but 2.78 conceded per game — their defence is leaking. That 2-4 loss to RB Bragantino five days ago is the most recent blemish, and it shows the vulnerability. Their away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses at 1.3 points per game, with 1.45 conceded per game. That's not great on the road, but the recent form is telling you something different is happening.
The head-to-head at Gremio's ground in the last 12 months gives us just one meeting: Cruzeiro won 1-0 back in November 2025. So the most recent time these two met at this venue, the visitors got the job done. The broader head-to-head spans 14 years and 32 meetings, with Gremio winning 13, Cruzeiro 12 and 7 draws — it's been a tight rivalry historically, but those older games dilute what we're looking at now.
The counter-argument for Gremio is the home record. Over 20 home games, they've outscored Cruzeiro's away output (1.35 to 1.2 per game) and conceded far less (0.85 to 1.45). They've kept more clean sheets (8 to 5) and failed to score less often (4 to 3). If you're looking at the structural home advantage, Gremio's numbers say they should be the side to trust at this ground. But form is form, and Gremio haven't won in five. Cruzeiro have won three of their last five and are scoring at a rate that Gremio simply aren't matching.
Key Points:
- Gremio's last five matches: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses; they've drawn their last three games
- Cruzeiro's last five: 3 wins, 2 losses, with 11 goals scored (2.2 per game) and 4 of 5 going over 2.5
- Gremio's home record (20 games): 10W 6D 4L, 0.85 conceded per game; Cruzeiro's away record (20 games): 7W 5D 8L, 1.45 conceded per game
- Head-to-head at Gremio's ground in the last 12 months: 1 meeting, Cruzeiro won 1-0
- BTTS has been yes in 4 of Gremio's last 5 and 4 of Cruzeiro's last 5
No Bet. The available prices could not be used for a recommendation, and with Gremio winless in five while Cruzeiro are in genuine form but leaking at the back, I can't lock in a confident pick on either side or the goals markets with the numbers in front of me. Sometimes you just watch the game and pour the beer, mate.
