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Gremio and Cruzeiro meet at Gremio's ground on 18 October, and the numbers point to a fixture where neither side holds a commanding advantage. Cruzeiro arrive with the stronger recent form: three wins from their last five matches, scoring 11 goals at 2.2 per game, while Gremio have managed just three draws and two losses in the same span, scoring only five goals. That gap in recent output is the clearest edge in this fixture, and it favours the visitors.
Cruzeiro's away record over 20 games shows 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses, with 1.2 goals scored per game and 1.45 conceded. Gremio's home record over 20 games is the stronger of the two venue records: 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses, 1.35 goals scored per game and just 0.85 conceded. That home defensive record — 8 clean sheets in 20 home games — is the single most reassuring figure for Gremio in this preview. The head-to-head over the last 12 months is thin. Three meetings have been played, and at Gremio's ground there has been just one: a 0–1 defeat for Gremio on 5 November 2025. At Cruzeiro's ground, the two meetings split one win each side. With only one meeting at this venue in the recent window, the head-to-head does not offer a reliable read, and I would lean on current form and the venue records instead.
The counter-argument for Gremio is their home defensive solidity. Conceding 0.85 per game at home and keeping 8 clean sheets in 20 is a record that does not match the 0–0 draw with Palmeiras or the 1–2 loss to Vasco da Gama in their last five. Gremio's last three matches have all been draws, suggesting a team that is not collapsing but is struggling to find a winning edge. Cruzeiro, meanwhile, lost 2–4 to RB Bragantino on 13 October, and their away record shows 8 losses in 20 games. That recent defeat and the away record keep this from being a one-sided proposition.
On goals, the picture is mixed. Cruzeiro's last five matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5, and their away record shows 12 of 20 games over 2.5. Gremio's home record, however, has seen under 2.5 in 13 of 20 games, and their last five matches have been under 2.5 in 3 of 5. Both teams have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches, and the away record shows 14 of 20 BTTS yes, while the home record shows 10 of 20. The scoring picture leans toward both teams finding the net, but it is far from a certainty.
Key Points:
- Cruzeiro's last five matches: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, scoring 2.2 per game
- Gremio's last five matches: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, scoring 1.0 per game
- Gremio's home record over 20 games: 10W 6D 4L, 0.85 conceded per game, 8 clean sheets
- Cruzeiro's away record over 20 games: 7W 5D 8L, 1.45 conceded per game
- Head-to-head at Gremio's ground in the last 12 months: 1 meeting, Gremio lost 0–1
The available prices could not be used for a recommendation. With no clear edge above the level I require, this is a no bet.
