Gremio host Cruzeiro at their ground on 18 October, and the numbers tell two stories that pull in opposite directions. The home record is the anchor here. Over 20 home games, Gremio sit on 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses — 1.8 points per game, 1.35 scored per game, 0.85 conceded per game, and 8 clean sheets. That's a solid home base. But peel back the last five matches and the picture shifts: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, 0.6 points per game, 5 goals scored, 7 conceded. The current run is three consecutive draws, 2 scored and 2 conceded. Gremio are not winning right now.
Cruzeiro arrive with the better recent form. Their last five: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, 1.8 points per game, 11 goals scored, 8 conceded. They've found the net in every one of those five. But their away record over 20 games is the weaker side of this matchup: 7 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses, 1.3 points per game, 1.2 scored per game, 1.45 conceded per game, 5 clean sheets. And their most recent outing — a 2-4 loss at RB Bragantino on 13 October — left them conceding 4 in a single game. The current run is one loss.
The head-to-head over the last 12 months is split three ways. Gremio won 3-1 at Cruzeiro's ground in July, Cruzeiro won 2-0 at their own ground in April, and Cruzeiro won 1-0 at Gremio's ground in November 2025. At this fixture's venue there's only one recent meeting — that 0-1 defeat. The older meetings, 15 and 22 months back, are historical record and don't carry current-form weight. So the H2H doesn't hand either side a clear edge.
The matchup comparison table makes the home/away split the clearest argument. Gremio at home: 1.8 PPG, 1.35 scored, 0.85 conceded. Cruzeiro away: 1.3 PPG, 1.2 scored, 1.45 conceded. Gremio's home defence is the standout — 0.85 conceded per game against Cruzeiro's 1.45 away. But the latest 10 all-venues picture tilts the other way: Cruzeiro 4W 1D 5L, 1.3 PPG, 1.7 scored per game, versus Gremio 2W 4D 4L, 1.0 PPG, 1.1 scored per game. Recent output favours the visitors.
The xG numbers add texture. Gremio's xG for over 5 games is 0.73 per game (actual 6 goals), while their xG against is 1.78 per game (actual 7 conceded). Cruzeiro's xG for over 3 games is 1.3 per game (actual 4 goals), but their xG against is 2.78 per game (actual 9 conceded) — a flag that their defence is under real pressure in recent weeks.
Key Points:
- Gremio's 20-game home record (10W 6D 4L, 0.85 conceded/game, 8 clean sheets) is the strongest single stat in this fixture
- Cruzeiro's last 5 (3W 0D 2L, 2.2 scored/game) outpaces Gremio's last 5 (0W 3D 2L, 1.0 scored/game)
- H2H at Gremio's ground: 1 recent meeting, 0-1 to Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro's xG against (2.78/game over 3 games) flags a vulnerable defence
- Gremio's home clean-sheet rate (8/20) versus Cruzeiro's away (5/20) favours the hosts
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