Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Gremio hosting Internacional here on 11 October, and it's a proper old rivalry with a bit of a twist.
The headline number is this: Gremio have won both of the last two times they've met at their own ground. Three-one in September, three-nil back in March. That's six goals to one across those two meetings, and it tells you something about how this fixture plays out when the home crowd are behind them. Add in the wider home record — 11 wins from 20 home games, scoring 1.45 a game and conceding just 0.8 — and you've got a side that historically eats away teams for breakfast at this venue.
But here's the rub. Gremio haven't won in five. Not one. They've drawn twice — a 1-1 at Remo and a 0-0 with Palmeiras — and lost three, including a 2-3 at Botafogo and a 1-2 to Vasco DA Gama at home. Their xG for over the last five games with data is 0.53 a game, which is... well, it's not great. They've failed to score in two of those five. The current run is two draws, and the form chart looks like a heart monitor that's flatlining.
Now flip it round. Internacional have won two of their last five — a 2-1 at home against Corinthians and a 2-1 away at Chapecoense-sc — and they've scored 1.4 a game. That's a side that's actually putting the ball in the net. Their xG for is 1.11 a game over three games with data, compared to Gremio's 0.53. They've been in the BTTS box in four of their last five, and over 2.5 in four of five. They're a team that scores, even if they're not keeping clean sheets (zero in five).
The counter to Gremio's home story is that Internacional's away record is 6 wins, 5 draws, 9 losses from 20. That's 1.15 points a game, and they've conceded 1.45 a game on the road. So they're not a team that folds on the road, but they're not exactly a force either. And the H2H at Internacional's ground has been all draws — three draws in the last three meetings at that venue, 0-0, 0-0, 1-1. So when the visitors are on their own patch, this fixture tends to go quiet.
The question is whether Gremio's home record and the head-to-head at this ground outweigh five games without a win. I think the home numbers and the H2H at this venue do the talking. The form is a concern, sure, but the venue record says Gremio find a way when it matters. I'd rate Gremio's chance at around 40%, which sits above the market's 35.46% on the 2.82 price.
Key Points:
- Gremio won both recent H2H meetings at their ground (3-1 and 3-0)
- Gremio's home record: 11W 5D 4L from 20 games, 1.45 goals scored per game
- Gremio have not won in their last five matches (0W 2D 3L)
- Internacional have won 2 of their last 5 but their away record is 6W 5D 9L
- H2H at Internacional's ground has produced three draws in the last three meetings there
Verdict: Gremio home win.