Preview
Value VinnyGremio have been in the doghouse of late — no wins in their last five, with two draws and three losses across a stretch from 7 September to 7 October. The 0–0 with Palmeiras at home on 20 September and the 1–1 at Remo on 7 October tell you a side that is struggling to find a gear. Their xG numbers over the last five games with data (0.53 per game) back up the eye test: they are creating less than they should.
But here is where the numbers start to bend in Gremio's favour. Over 20 home games this stretch, Gremio have won 11, drawn 5 and lost 4, averaging 1.9 points per game. They score 1.45 per game at home and concede just 0.8, keeping 9 clean sheets in 20. That is a solid home record. And when you look at the head-to-head at this specific ground, the picture sharpens: Gremio have won both of the two recent meetings here, 3–1 in September and 3–0 in March. No draws, no losses. The scores say this is a place where Gremio find their rhythm.
Internacional, by contrast, travel with a 6W 5D 9L record over 20 away games — 1.15 points per game, 1.1 scored and 1.45 conceded. They have kept just 4 clean sheets in 20 away fixtures. Their last five games show 2 wins and 3 losses, and the 0–1 loss to Sao Paulo on 20 September and the 2–3 home defeat to Santos on 6 September (with a red card in the 28th minute) underline that their away record is fragile. The head-to-head at Internacional's ground has produced three straight draws, but that is the reverse venue — it tells you nothing about how this game plays out at Gremio's end.
The counter-argument is real. Gremio's last five games are ugly. They have scored just 4 goals in that span and conceded 7. The 3–2 loss to Botafogo and the 1–2 to Vasco da Gama at home on 12 September show they are leaking goals even when they score. The market prices Internacional as the slight favourite at 2.66 (37.59% implied), which reflects that recent form dip. And Gremio's xG against is running at 2.13 per game over the last five games with data — that is a lot of pressure they are absorbing.
Still, the home record and the head-to-head at this ground are the two most telling pieces of evidence, and both point the same way. Gremio's 11 wins from 20 home games and their 2–0 record in recent meetings here outweigh a five-game stretch of poor form. I rate Gremio's chance of winning at around 43%, which sits comfortably above the 35.46% the market is implying at 2.82. That gap is the value I am looking for.
Key Points:
- Gremio's home record: 11W 5D 4L in 20 games, 1.9 PPG, 0.8 conceded per game
- Head-to-head at Gremio's ground: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses (3–1, 3–0)
- Internacional's away record: 6W 5D 9L in 20 games, 1.45 conceded per game
- Gremio's last 5 games: 0W 2D 3L, 4 scored, 7 conceded
- Market implies Gremio at 35.46%; my estimate sits above that
Verdict: I'm backing the Gremio home win at 2.82.