Preview
PajimonLook, boet, this one's got me reaching for the beer before kickoff. Gremio are at home, and the numbers say they should be in control. Over their last 20 home games, Gremio have won 11, drawn 5 and lost 4, scoring 1.45 per game and conceding just 0.8. When these two meet at Gremio's ground, the last two meetings went 3–1 and 3–0 — both Gremio wins. The matchup table backs it up: Gremio at home average 1.9 points per game compared to Internacional's 1.15 away, and Gremio score 1.45 per game at home while Internacional manage 1.1 on the road.
But here's where it gets tricky. Gremio's last five games are 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses. They drew 1–1 at Remo on 7 October, drew 0–0 with Palmeiras at home on 20 September, lost 2–3 to Botafogo on 16 September, lost 1–2 to Vasco da Gama at home on 12 September, and lost 0–1 to Vitoria on 7 September. Their current run is two draws. The xG numbers from their last five games with data show they're creating 0.53 per game and facing 2.13 per game. That's not a team in control, and I can't pretend it is.
Internacional, on the other hand, won their last game 2–1 against Corinthians at home on 7 October. Their last five is 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, scoring 1.4 per game. They've had a mixed run — losing to Sao Paulo 0–1 on 20 September and to Santos 2–3 at home on 6 September (with a red card in the 28th minute) — but they beat Chapecoense 2–1 away on 12 September. Their away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses, conceding 1.45 per game.
The head-to-head over the last five meetings tells an interesting story. At Gremio's ground, it's been 3–1 and 3–0. At Internacional's ground, it's been 0–0, 0–0 and 1–1 — three draws in three meetings. The most recent meeting was on 3 September in the Copa do Brasil, Gremio 3–1.
The counter-argument is real and I won't sugarcoat it. Gremio haven't won in five, their xG creation is at 0.53 per game, and they've failed to score in two of those five. Internacional's last five has seen them score in four of five games and go over 2.5 in four of five. The market prices Gremio's win at 2.82 (35.46% implied), which suggests the bookies see this as a tight one.
Key Points:
- Gremio's home record: 11W 5D 4L in 20 games, 1.45 scored per game, 0.8 conceded
- H2H at Gremio's ground: 2 wins in 2 meetings (3–1, 3–0)
- Gremio's last 5: 0W 2D 3L, xG for 0.53/game, xG against 2.13/game
- Internacional's last 5: 2W 0D 3L, won their last game 2–1
- H2H at Internacional's ground: 3 draws in 3 meetings
My verdict: Gremio home win at 2.82. The home record and the head-to-head at this ground are compelling, and while the current form is a concern, the home numbers over 20 games and the matchup table give Gremio the edge. I rate this at around 40%, which sits above the market's 35.46% implied probability.