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Match preview
EnglandLeague Two
Match preview
EnglandLeague Two
The strongest case here is written in the home-and-away records, and it is written in bold. Grimsby at their ground have won 11 of their last 20 home games, drawing 4 and losing 5, for 1.85 points per game. They score 2.0 goals per game at home and concede 1.1. Northampton on the road tell a very different story: 3 wins, 4 draws and 13 losses in 20 away games, 0.65 points per game, 0.85 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. The gap between these two sets of numbers is the story of this fixture.
The head-to-head, I must say, is dated. All five meetings on record are historical, stretching back three to seven years, and no meeting has taken place within the last 12 months. So we lean on the current form and the venue records, as we must. The older games dilute any reading we might try to draw from them, and that is a truth you cannot ignore.
And current form, it is, a concern for the hosts. Grimsby's last five matches read 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses. They lost 1–2 at Shrewsbury at home on 3 October, drew 0–0 with Burton Albion in the EFL Trophy on 6 October, and fell 0–1 at Port Vale on 10 October. Four defeats in five, and the current run is a loss. The wise thing to do is not to ignore that, but to weigh it against the longer home record, which is the most relevant comparison for this specific ground.
Northampton, too, are not in fine form. Their last five is 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses. They drew 1–1 at York on 10 October, lost 1–2 at Cambridge United in the EFL Trophy on 6 October, and before that fell 0–1 at home to Rotherham on 19 September and 0–2 at Shrewsbury on 12 September. Their only win in that stretch was a 1–0 over Newport County on 5 September. The current run is a draw.
The counter-argument, then, is this: both teams are in poor recent form, and the head-to-head offers no current guidance. Grimsby have not won in five matches, and Northampton have won just once in five. A draw at 3.85 is not out of the question when two struggling sides meet. The market's 25.97% on the draw reflects that uncertainty.
But the structural advantage at this ground is hard to dismiss. Grimsby score 2.0 per game at home; Northampton score 0.85 per game away. Grimsby concede 1.1 at home; Northampton concede 1.8 away. Over 20 games, the points-per-game gap is 1.85 to 0.65. That is not a small difference. The market prices Grimsby at 1.75, implying a 57.14% chance. My own reading of the home-and-away records, weighed against the recent form dip, puts the hosts' chance at roughly 59%. The numbers at this ground, I tell you, favour the home side. You must trust the record, not the last five games alone.
Key Points:
I back the Grimsby home win.
