Grimsby vs Shrewsbury Prediction

Alright, folks, pull up a stool. We've got a proper League Two mid-season scrap on our hands here. Grimsby, sitting 16th, welcome Shrewsbury, who are down in 21st and looking over their shoulder. On paper, you'd fancy the home side, but the recent form book makes for some grim reading for both.

Let's start with the hosts. Grimsby haven't won a league game in their last five. That's right, five. They've drawn two and lost three, and the goals have completely dried up. They've scored just twice in those five matches, with blanks against Oldham, Bromley, and Notts County. Their last outing was a 0-0 snoozer with Oldham. At home, they've been a bit better, averaging 1.67 goals a game, but the trend is heading south. The stats show they like to have the ball (nearly 58% possession on average) and take plenty of shots, but lately, they just can't stick it in the net.

Now, over to Shrewsbury. Blimey, they're having a rough time of it. One win in their last ten tells its own story. They can't buy a win on the road either, losing four of their last six away trips. The one silver lining? They usually manage to score. They've found the net in four of their last five league games, including against the league leaders Walsall. The problem is their defence, especially away from home, where they're shipping over two goals a game on average. They're conceding chances for fun.

These two already met just 20 days ago, and it finished 1-1. A bit of a nothing game, by all accounts. The head-to-head record is as even as it gets: one win each and two draws from the last four meetings.

So, what's the play here? Grimsby are the favourites at 1.81, but can you trust them to win? They've forgotten how to. Shrewsbury are a massive 4.35 to win away, and you'd be brave to back that. The draw at 3.55 might tempt a few, given both sides' recent habit of sharing the points.

For me, the value lies in the goals market. Shrewsbury's games are both teams to score bonanzas – it's happened in 8 of their last 10 matches. They score, but they always seem to let one in. Grimsby, despite their recent drought, have the firepower at home to trouble that shaky Shrewsbury backline. I fancy both nets to ripple.

Key Points:

Grimsby are winless in five league games, scoring only twice.

Shrewsbury have won just once in ten and are terrible on the road.

Shrewsbury's matches see both teams score 80% of the time.

The reverse fixture ended 1-1 just three weeks ago.

• Grimsby average 1.67 goals at home; Shrewsbury concede 2.17 away.

The Simple Verdict: This has all the makings of a tense, scrappy affair between two out-of-form sides. A home win wouldn't shock anyone, but Grimsby's lack of a cutting edge lately puts me off. The smart money, with a bit of value, is on both teams finding the back of the net. Shrewsbury are too leaky to keep a clean sheet, and Grimsby should capitalise, while the visitors have shown they can score against anyone. Let's go for goals at both ends.