Groningen vs Ajax Prediction

There's nothing quite like a fixture where both teams have been leaking goals like a sieve and scoring like they've been paid per strike. And that, my friends, is exactly what we've got on our hands when Groningen host Ajax on 18 October.

Groningen have been in absolute goal-machine mode. Their last two games have been wins, and they've scored 8 goals while conceding just 1 in that stretch. The 5-1 thrashing of Excelsior seven days before this match was a statement, and the 3-0 over PEC Zwolle at home four weeks before this match showed they can do it on their own patch too. Across their last five matches, they've scored 13 goals at 2.6 per game, and four of those five went over 2.5 on the total. At home over 20 games, 16 of those 20 have finished with three or more goals. That is a venue that practically begs for goals, and I love it.

Now look at Ajax on the road. Over 20 away games, 14 of them have gone over 2.5. Their last five matches have seen 14 goals scored by them at 2.8 per game, and four of those five were over 2.5. In their last 10 across all venues, 9 of 10 have been over 2.5. The xG numbers back it up too — Ajax are creating 1.79 expected goals per game and conceding 1.4, which means both ends of the pitch are alive and kicking.

The head-to-head at this specific ground tells a story. The most recent meeting here, seven months before this match, was a 3-1 Groningen win. Four goals. The other two recent meetings at Ajax's ground were 2-0 affairs, but those were on the reverse venue. At Groningen's ground, the last time these two met, the scoreboard lit up.

The counter-argument? Well, the last two meetings at Ajax's ground were both 2-0, which means one team shut the other out. And the H2H at this venue, while it was 3-1, does show that one side can dominate. Ajax's most recent game was a 1-2 loss to Hajduk Split in the Europa Conference League three days before this match, and they drew 1-1 with NEC Nijmegen at home before that. There's a slight wobble in their form. And Groningen did lose 2-3 to Fortuna Sittard at home seven weeks before this match, so they're not impenetrable either.

But here's the thing — both teams have failed to score in only 0 of their last 5 games. Both have been involved in BTTS in 4 and 5 of their last 5 respectively. The xG data shows Groningen creating 2.01 per game and facing 2.07, while Ajax create 1.79 and face 1.4. That is a lot of chances being generated on both ends, and when two teams are both creating and conceding at that rate, the total goal count tends to climb.

Key Points:

• Groningen's home record: 16 of 20 games over 2.5 goals

• Ajax's away record: 14 of 20 games over 2.5 goals

• Both teams scored in 4 and 5 of their last 5 matches respectively

• The most recent H2H at this venue was a 3-1 goal-fest

• Ajax's last 10 across all venues: 9 of 10 over 2.5

The Big O's verdict: Over 2.5 goals.