Preview
Mr SimpleGubbio and Atalanta II meet at Gubbio's ground on 18 October in Serie C Girone B, and the immediate eye-catcher is how both sides have been struggling to find the net. Gubbio have lost their last four matches, scoring just one goal and conceding nine in the process. Their last five games have produced only two goals for them, and they've failed to score in three of those five. Atalanta II, meanwhile, have dropped their last three, managing a single goal and conceding six. Both teams are in a genuine rut, and that's the thread that runs through this fixture.
The head-to-head is blank — no meetings on record — so we have to lean on the venue records and recent form. Gubbio's home record over 20 games is respectable: 8 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses, with 1.3 goals scored per game and 1.1 conceded. They've kept a clean sheet in 8 of those 20 home games and failed to score in only 6. Atalanta II's away record over 20 games is weaker: 5 wins, 6 draws, 9 losses, scoring 1.05 per game and conceding 1.4. They've kept just 3 clean sheets on the road and failed to score in 7 of 20. When you line those up, Gubbio at home are the more solid proposition, and Atalanta II on the road are the more vulnerable.
The most telling stat for this fixture is the BTTS split. At Gubbio's ground, both teams have scored in only 8 of 20 home games — 12 of 20 have seen at least one side go blank. Atalanta II's away record is more even at 10 yes, 10 no, but their recent form tells a different story: they've failed to score in 2 of their last 5, and Gubbio have done the same in 3 of 5. When you stack Gubbio's home record against Atalanta II's away record, the numbers lean towards a tight, low-scoring affair where at least one team goes home without a goal.
The counter-argument is that both teams are in genuine poor form and that could open things up. Gubbio's last 10 games across all venues have seen them score 1.5 per game but concede 1.8, and Atalanta II's last 10 have seen them score 1.3 and concede 1.7. Neither side is in a position to dominate, and a red card for Atalanta II in their last outing (45th minute at Latina) could still be weighing on their confidence. The market prices the draw at 3.3 and both outcomes at 2.7 to 2.8, suggesting a tight contest where any result is on the table. But the venue records and the scoring droughts point the same way: this looks like a game where one team's net stays silent.
Key Points:
- Gubbio have lost 4 in a row, scoring 1 and conceding 9
- Atalanta II have lost 3 in a row, scoring 1 and conceding 6
- Gubbio's home record: 12 of 20 games saw at least one team fail to score
- Atalanta II's away record: 7 of 20 games saw them fail to score
- No head-to-head meetings on record
My pick: both teams not to score.