Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Gubbio hosting Atalanta II on 18 October in Serie C Girone B, and I'll be honest with you — this one smells like a low-scoring scrap. And I don't mean that in a bad way, I just mean the numbers are telling me both these sides are having a bit of a struggle to put the ball in the back of the net.
Gubbio have lost their last four, and in those four games they've managed just one goal while conceding nine. That's not a pretty picture, my friend. At home over 20 games, Gubbio have kept clean sheets in 8 of those 20 and failed to score in 6. In their last five matches, three of them ended with Gubbio on the scoreless side. The 1–3 loss to Perugia on 3 October and the 0–2 to Ostia Mare on 20 September at their own ground show that even at home, the goals just aren't coming. Their home record stretches back to 18 October 2025, so those 20 games cover a good stretch, but the last five are the ones that really sting.
Now look at Atalanta II on the road. Over 20 away games, they've failed to score in 7 of those 20 and kept clean sheets in just 3. Their last three matches have been losses — 0–2 at Latina on 14 October (where they got a red card in the 45th minute), 1–2 at Torres on 11 October, and 0–2 at home to Ravenna on 20 September. They did pick up a 3–2 win at Sambenedettese on 16 September, but that was before the slide started. Their away record goes back to 3 December 2025, so again we've got a decent stretch to look at.
The head-to-head is blank — no meetings on record between these two — so we're flying on current form and venue records. And the venue records are telling a clear story. Gubbio at home have seen under 2.5 goals in 13 of their last 20 home games, and Atalanta II away have seen under 2.5 in 14 of their last 20 away games. Both teams' recent matches are also leaning under — Gubbio 4 of 5, Atalanta II 2 of 5. The BTTS no column is where it really clicks: Gubbio home have had 12 of 20 with at least one side scoreless, and Atalanta II away have had 10 of 20. In Gubbio's last five, three games had a team that didn't score. In Atalanta II's last five, two did.
Now, the counter-argument: Atalanta II did score in 3 of their last 5 matches, and their away record over 20 games shows 10 BTTS yes. Gubbio's home record also has 8 BTTS yes out of 20. So there is a reasonable chance both sides find the net. The market prices both teams to score at 1.8, which implies about 55.56% — and I think that's a touch too high given what we're seeing in the last few weeks. Both teams are going through a patch where the finishing just isn't there.
Key Points:
- Gubbio have scored in just 2 of their last 5 matches and failed to score in 3
- Atalanta II have lost their last 3, scoring just 1 goal in that run
- Gubbio home: 13 of 20 under 2.5; Atalanta II away: 14 of 20 under 2.5
- No head-to-head meetings on record between these two sides
- Both teams' venue records show a strong tendency for at least one side to go scoreless
My verdict: I'm going with both teams not to score. The numbers at both ends of the pitch are telling me one of these two will finish without finding the net, and I'd rate that chance at around 53%, which sits comfortably above the market's 49.50% view on the 2.02 price. Now pass me a cold one and let's watch this one.