Preview
Umery UnderdogThere's something quietly endearing about two teams that simply cannot score. Gubbio and Atalanta II meet at Gubbio's ground on 18 October in Serie C Girone B, and both sides are in a genuine scoring drought that makes the "both teams to score" market look like a long shot for the little puppies.
Gubbio have lost their last four matches, scoring just one goal and conceding nine in the process. Atalanta II have lost their last three, managing a single goal and conceding six. These are not teams that are finding the back of the net right now, and the venue records suggest this fixture will follow the same pattern. I love a good underdog story, and this one is written in clean sheets and empty scorelines.
Gubbio's home record over 20 games is far more encouraging than their current run. They have won 8 of those 20, drawn 5 and lost 7, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Eight of those 20 home games ended with Gubbio keeping a clean sheet. Atalanta II's away record over 20 games is weaker: 5 wins, 6 draws, 9 losses, with 1.05 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, and only 3 clean sheets in 20. The home side's defensive record at this ground is noticeably more solid than the visitors' away attack, and that's the kind of edge I like to find in the small guy.
The BTTS numbers lean clearly toward "no." Gubbio's home games have seen both teams score in just 8 of 20, meaning at least one side failed to score in 12. Atalanta II's away games have been 50/50, with 10 of 20 seeing both teams find the net. Gubbio's last five matches have produced BTTS no in 3 of 5, and the team failed to score in 3 of those 5. Atalanta II's last five have been more open, with both teams scoring in 3 of 5, but their away record over 20 games shows 7 failures to score. The venue evidence keeps pointing the same way.
The counter-argument is that Atalanta II's recent form, while poor, has included some scoring. They won 3-2 at Sambenedettese on 16 September and 2-1 at home to Pescara on 12 September, showing they can find goals when it matters. Their last 10 games have seen BTTS yes in 6 of 10. Gubbio, meanwhile, did score in their 1-1 draw at Pescara on 16 September and in their 1-3 loss to Perugia on 3 October. The red card to Atalanta II in minute 45 of their 0-2 loss at Latina on 14 October could also open up a second-half scramble that produces goals. And with no head-to-head record between these two sides, we cannot lean on history to break the tie.
Key Points:
- Gubbio have lost their last 4 games, scoring 1 and conceding 9
- Atalanta II have lost their last 3 games, scoring 1 and conceding 6
- Gubbio's home record: 12 of 20 games saw at least one team fail to score
- Atalanta II's away record: 7 of 20 games saw them fail to score
- No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides
My pick: both teams not to score at 2.02.