Guingamp vs Saint Etienne Prediction

Saint Etienne walk into this fixture on a four-game winning run — 9 goals scored, 1 conceded — and the wider numbers back it up. Across their last 10 matches they've collected 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, averaging 2.5 goals per game while conceding just 0.9. Their xG against over the last three matches sits at 0.46 per game, and they've kept clean sheets in 3 of those 5 recent outings. This is a side that is scoring consistently and leaking almost nothing.

Guingamp, by contrast, have won just 2 of their last 5, conceding 7 goals in the process. Their xG against over the last three matches is 1.33 per game, and they've kept a clean sheet in only 1 of those 5. At home over 20 games, their record is 7 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses — a 1.25 points-per-game figure that tells you this is not a place where the hosts hold a commanding edge.

The head-to-head is mostly historical, stretching back 12 years with 18 meetings. The only meeting within the last 12 months was on 14 February 2026 at Guingamp's ground, which Saint Etienne won 2–1. The older meetings at both venues are a mixed bag, with Guingamp winning 5, Saint Etienne winning 11, and 2 draws across the full aggregate. With only one recent meeting, the H2H doesn't hand us a clear edge, so current form has to carry the weight.

The matchup table on home and away records is essentially a wash: both sides sit on 7W 4D 9L over 20 games, 1.25 points per game. But the last-10 comparison is stark. Saint Etienne's 2.5 points per game and 2.5 goals scored per game sit well above Guingamp's 1.4 and 1.4. The defensive gap is just as telling: Saint Etienne concede 0.9 per game in their last 10, while Guingamp concede 1.4.

The counter-argument is that Guingamp did pick up a 2–0 win away at Clermont on 23 October, and their home record, while unremarkable, does include 7 wins. The H2H is dated, and a side in poor form can always find a spark at home. But the weight of the evidence — four straight wins, a 0.46 xG against, and a Guingamp side that has lost 3 of 5 — points firmly one way.

Key Points:

• Saint Etienne have won their last 4 games, scoring 9 and conceding just 1

• Guingamp have lost 3 of their last 5, conceding 7 goals

• The only meeting within 12 months was a 2–1 Saint Etienne win at Guingamp's ground

• Both sides sit on 7W 4D 9L over 20 home/away games, but Saint Etienne's last-10 form (8W 1D 1L) dwarfs Guingamp's (4W 2D 4L)

• Saint Etienne's xG against over 3 recent games is 0.46 per game, with 0 actual goals conceded

The numbers don't lie, and the bookies have Saint Etienne at 1.94. I'm backing the away win.