Göztepe vs Alanyaspor Prediction

Right then, let's have a butcher's at this Süper Lig tussle down on the Aegean coast. Göztepe are hosting Alanyaspor, and on paper, you'd fancy the home side to get back to winning ways - though recent form suggests it might not be the walk in the park the table implies.

Göztepe come into this sitting pretty in 6th spot with 42 points, level with Başakşehir and well clear of the mid-table muddle. Their home form has been rock-solid - unbeaten in their last five at the Gürsel Aksel, winning three of them and conceding just 0.4 goals per game. That's proper fortress stuff. But here's the rub: they've gone three games without a win, including a proper pasting (0-4) at Beşiktaş and back-to-back goalless draws against Eyüpspor and Kayserispor at home. Four goals in their last five matches tells you the attacking spark has gone a bit dim lately.

Now Alanyaspor roll up in 11th place with 27 points, and they're a funny old team to weigh up. Away from home, they're actually been finding the net regularly - bagging 2 goals per game on their travels - but they're leaking 1.5 at the other end. They held Beşiktaş to a 2-2 draw recently (no mean feat that), but they've also lost three on the spin in the league before drawing 0-0 with Gençlerbirliği last time out. They put four past Boluspor in the cup, but that's a different kettle of fish entirely.

The head-to-head makes grim reading for Göztepe fans - Alanyaspor have won four of the last nine meetings with Göztepe only managing one victory. The visitors took the spoils 1-0 back in October, and they've had the Indian sign over this fixture historically.

Key Points:

• Göztepe are unbeaten in their last 5 home games (60% win rate) and have kept 3 clean sheets in that run

• Alanyaspor have scored in 4 consecutive away matches but conceded in 3 of their last 4 on the road

• Göztepe's attack has dried up recently - just 3 goals in their last 5 matches including three blanks

• Alanyaspor have the historical edge with 4 wins to Göztepe's 1 in the last 9 meetings

• The hosts have had a full week to recover (7 days rest) compared to Alanyaspor's 5 days

Look, Göztepe's recent goal drought is a worry, but their home defensive record is stellar, and Alanyaspor's away form is too inconsistent to trust. The 2.10 on offer for a home win represents decent value given the gulf in league positions and Göztepe's fortress-like home stats. Alanyaspor might nick one given their away scoring record, but the hosts should have enough quality to see this through. It's not a banker by any stretch - that 0-4 at Beşiktaş is still fresh in the memory - but at evens-plus, I'll take the home side to stop the rot.