Halmstad vs Malmo FF Prediction

Look, mate, when you sit down to watch Halmstad take on Malmo FF in the Allsvenskan, the first thing that hits you is just how one-sided this fixture has been. Malmo have won 12 of the last 14 meetings between these two sides, and in the last 12 months, both times they met — 5–2 and 2–1 at Malmo's ground — the visitors came away with the points. Even going back further, when they did meet at Halmstad's ground, the scores were 0–4 and 0–1. So the head-to-head is telling you something, and it's not a nice story for the home side.

Now, Halmstad's home record over the last 20 games is 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses. They've scored 0.8 a game and conceded 1.55. That's not exactly a strong home base, bra. In their last five matches across all grounds, they've won three and lost two, but they've failed to score in two of those five and haven't kept a single clean sheet. Their xG for in the last three games with data is sitting at 0.36 a game, which means they're not really creating much. On the flip side, their xG against is 2.1 a game over those same three, so the opposition is finding them.

Malmo FF, on the other hand, have been tight at the back. In their last ten games, they've conceded just 0.8 a game and kept five clean sheets. In their last five, they've failed to score in three of them, but they've also kept three clean sheets and gone under 2.5 goals in four of those five. Their away record over 20 games is 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses, scoring 1.3 a game and conceding 1.4. That's a solid away side.

The counter-argument, and I'll give Halmstad their due, is that they've won their last game — 2–1 away at Vasteras — and they've won two of their last three home games, including a 3–2 against Osters IF and a 2–1 against AIK. Their last five has seen 4 out of 5 games go over 2.5 goals, and both recent head-to-head meetings had both teams on the scoresheet. So there's a case that this could be an open game.

But here's the thing: Malmo's last five games have been 0–0, 0–1, 1–0, 3–0 and 0–2. In every single one of those, at least one team failed to score. That's five out of five. Their last ten has 8 out of 10 going the same way. Halmstad's home record has 13 out of 20 where at least one side didn't score. When you stack that up against the fact that Halmstad's xG for is barely 0.36 a game, the picture is of a match where one side — probably Halmstad — is going to be shut out or held to a single goal.

Key Points:

• Malmo FF have won 12 of 14 head-to-head meetings, including both in the last 12 months

• Malmo's last 5 games: 5/5 with at least one team failing to score; last 10: 8/10

• Halmstad's home record: 6W 4D 10L in 20 games, 10/20 failed to score

• Halmstad's xG for in last 3 games with data: 0.36 per game

• Malmo FF away record: 8W 4D 8L in 20 games, 7/20 clean sheets

My verdict: both teams not to score.