Preview
Mr CertaintyBodo/Glimt arrive at Ham-Kam's ground with a scoring record that is hard to ignore. In their last 10 matches across all competitions, they have gone over 2.5 goals in every single game, scoring 3.0 per game and conceding 1.6. Their away record over 20 games tells the same story: 17 of those 20 matches finished with three or more goals, and they average 2.35 goals per game on the road. The head-to-head adds another layer — seven of the last 10 meetings between these two sides have produced over 2.5 goals, and the only meeting within the last 12 months, at Bodo/Glimt's ground on 22 July, ended 3–0.
Ham-Kam's recent numbers point in the same direction. In their last five matches they have conceded 2.8 per game, and four of those five went over 2.5. At home over 20 games, 14 of 20 have seen three or more goals. Their last home fixture, a 1–5 defeat to Molde on 13 September, is a reminder of how quickly this ground can open up. Ham-Kam did pick up a 4–2 win over Start on 11 October, but that was on the road, and their only home game in that stretch was that heavy loss to Molde.
The counter-argument is that Ham-Kam do have a solid home record — 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in 20 home games — and they came into this fixture with a win. Bodo/Glimt's last five also includes two losses: a 1–2 defeat at Brann on 20 September (with a red card in the 68th minute) and a 0–5 Champions League loss to Bayern München on 10 September. There is no recent meeting at Ham-Kam's ground within the last 12 months, so the head-to-head at this specific venue is thin, and the older meetings at this ground (a 1–3 loss and a 1–0 win) do not give a clear picture of current dynamics.
But the weight of the evidence is clear. Bodo/Glimt's away scoring output, Ham-Kam's recent defensive fragility, and the historical tendency for these fixtures to produce goals all point to a high-scoring game. I am comfortable with the numbers here. This is the kind of match where the numbers line up and I can sleep at night.
Key Points:
- Bodo/Glimt have gone over 2.5 goals in all 10 of their last 10 matches
- Bodo/Glimt's away record: 17 of 20 games over 2.5, 2.35 goals per game
- Ham-Kam conceded 2.8 per game in their last 5 matches
- 7 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings finished over 2.5 goals
- Ham-Kam's last home game was a 1–5 loss to Molde on 13 September
My pick: over 2.5 goals.