Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Ham-Kam hosting Bodo/Glimt in the Eliteserien on 17 October, and let me tell you, this one's got the smell of a braai on it - the kind where the meat is falling off the bone. Bodo/Glimt have been absolutely tearing up the league, and Ham-Kam are trying to figure out what's for dinner.
The numbers don't lie, and I don't care if they do - they don't. Bodo/Glimt have gone over 2.5 goals in all 10 of their last 10 games. Not 9. Not 8. All 10. That's a consistency that would make any braai master proud - the coals are always hot, the meat always tender. Their away record over 20 games shows 17 of 20 going over 2.5, and in their last 10 they've scored 3.0 goals per game while conceding just 1.6. Two weeks ago they put 6 past Rana away from home, and seven days ago they beat Kristiansund BK 3-1 at home. This team is in the zone, and the goals keep coming.
Ham-Kam, on the other hand, have been a bit... let's say "inconsistent" is the generous word. Their last 5 is 2 wins, 3 losses, and they've conceded 14 goals in that span - 2.8 per game. Four weeks ago they lost 1-5 at home to Molde, which is not the kind of evening you want to be watching. That said, they did bounce back with a 4-2 win away at Start six days ago, and their home record over 20 games is 12 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses. So they're not a team that folds at home, and 14 of those 20 home games went over 2.5.
The head-to-head tells its own story. The only meeting within the last 12 months was at Bodo/Glimt's ground two months ago, and it finished 3-0. Going back further, Bodo/Glimt have won 7 of 10 meetings, and 7 of those 10 went over 2.5. At Ham-Kam's ground historically, the scores were 1-3 and 1-0, with Bodo/Glimt winning one and Ham-Kam winning the other.
Now, the counter-argument: Ham-Kam do have a solid home record, 12 wins in 20, and they just won 4-2. Bodo/Glimt's last 5 includes a 0-5 loss to Bayern in the Champions League and a 1-2 defeat at Brann (though Brann had a red card in the 68th minute). So Bodo/Glimt aren't invincible, and Ham-Kam's home form over 20 games suggests they can put up a fight.
But here's the thing - and I'll use my South African analogy - when the coals are that hot and the meat is that tender, you don't need to overthink it. Bodo/Glimt's 10-of-10 over 2.5 in their last 10 games is the most telling stat in this fixture. Ham-Kam's 8-of-10 over 2.5 in their last 10, the venue records (17 of 20 away for Bodo/Glimt, 14 of 20 home for Ham-Kam), and the H2H 7-of-10 all point the same direction. The market prices over 2.5 at 1.3, implying about 77%, and I'd put my own estimate at around 80%. That 10-of-10 streak is hard to ignore.
Key Points:
- Bodo/Glimt have gone over 2.5 goals in all 10 of their last 10 games
- Ham-Kam have gone over 2.5 in 8 of their last 10 games
- Bodo/Glimt's away record: 17 of 20 games over 2.5; Ham-Kam's home record: 14 of 20 over 2.5
- The only recent H2H meeting (2 months ago) finished 3-0, and 7 of 10 total meetings went over 2.5
- Ham-Kam's last 5 includes a 1-5 home loss to Molde and a 0-4 away loss to Rosenborg
I'm going with over 2.5 goals.