Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Ham-Kam hosting Bodo/Glimt on 17 October in the Eliteserien, and if you've been following this fixture, you'll know the Glimt have been having a field day. In the last 10 meetings between these two, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, drawn 2, and Ham-Kam have managed just 1 win. The most recent one, back in July at Bodo/Glimt's ground, ended 3–0. And that's not even the full picture — Ham-Kam failed to score in 6 of those 10 meetings, so the Glimt have been eating them up for the most part.
Now, Ham-Kam do have a home record to point to — 12 wins in their last 20 home games, scoring 2.0 per game and conceding 1.4. And they just came back from a 4–2 win at Start's ground six days ago, so they're not completely without fire. But look at the rest of their last five: a 3–2 loss at Tromsø, a 1–5 thrashing at home to Molde, and a 0–4 defeat at Rosenborg. That's three losses in five, conceding 2.8 per game. Their xG numbers back it up too — 1.38 per game for, which is pretty thin. They're leaking goals and struggling to create.
Bodo/Glimt, on the other hand, are in proper form. Eight wins in their last 10, 3.0 goals per game, and they've gone over 2.5 in all 10 of those matches. Every single one. Their away record over 20 games is 13 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses, scoring 2.35 per game. They've won their last two — a 3–1 at home to Kristiansund and a 6–2 away at Rana in the cup. Their xG for is 3.42 per game in the two matches where we have data, and their xG against is just 0.66. That's a team that's creating plenty and keeping things tidy at the back.
The counter-argument is Ham-Kam's home record and that recent 4–2 win. They've got 12 wins in 20 at home, and they did score 4 in their last outing. But the quality of opposition matters, and the Glimt are a different beast to Start. The head-to-head tells you everything: Ham-Kam average 0.8 goals per game against Bodo/Glimt and concede 2.5. That's a tough ask for a team that's been leaking 2.8 per game across all competitions.
Key Points:
- Bodo/Glimt have won 7 of the last 10 meetings, with Ham-Kam failing to score in 6 of those 10
- Bodo/Glimt have gone over 2.5 in all 10 of their latest matches; Ham-Kam in 8 of 10
- Ham-Kam's last five: 2 wins, 3 losses, conceding 2.8 per game
- Bodo/Glimt's away record: 13 wins in 20, scoring 2.35 per game
- The head-to-head at this venue has no recent meetings, so current form and the wider H2H record carry the weight
With Bodo/Glimt scoring at a rate of 3.0 per game and Ham-Kam conceding 2.8 per game, the total goals are going to be up there. I'm going with over 2.5 goals at 1.3.