Preview
Value VinnyBodo/Glimt arrive at Ham-Kam's ground carrying the kind of momentum that makes bookmakers nervous. Their last 10 games across all venues have produced 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses, with 3.0 goals scored per game and just 1.6 conceded. More telling for this fixture: every single one of those 10 games has gone over 2.5 goals. Their away record over 20 games tells a similar story — 13 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses, with 17 of those 20 away games producing three or more goals. The head-to-head reinforces the pattern. Bodo/Glimt have won 7 of the 10 meetings between these sides, and the most recent, on 22 July at Bodo/Glimt's ground, ended 3–0. The older meetings at Ham-Kam's ground (1–3 in 2025, 1–0 in 2024) are historical record only.
The goal-scoring picture is where the real value sits. Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.6 goals per game in their last five, and their xG data from two recent matches shows 3.42 expected goals per game for and just 0.66 against. Ham-Kam, meanwhile, are conceding 2.8 per game in their last five and have gone over 2.5 in 4 of those 5. At home over 20 games, Ham-Kam have seen over 2.5 in 14 of 20. When you stack Bodo/Glimt's 10-for-10 over 2.5 in their last 10 against Ham-Kam's 14-for-20 at home, the combined expectation points firmly toward a high-scoring affair.
The counter-argument is that Ham-Kam are not without a spark. They won 4–2 at Start just six days ago, and their home record of 12 wins in 20 games shows they can hold their own. They've failed to score in only 1 of their last 20 home games. Bodo/Glimt's two recent losses — 1–2 at Brann (with a red card in the 68th minute) and 0–5 at Bayern in the Champions League (with a red card in the 87th) — remind us they are not impervious. The head-to-head at this specific venue has no recent meetings within the last 12 months, so the 3–0 from July at Bodo/Glimt's ground is the only current-form reference point.
Key Points:
- Bodo/Glimt have gone over 2.5 in all 10 of their last 10 games across all venues.
- Bodo/Glimt's away record: 17 of 20 games over 2.5; Ham-Kam's home record: 14 of 20 over 2.5.
- Bodo/Glimt have won 7 of 10 head-to-head meetings, with the most recent a 3–0 on 22 July.
- Ham-Kam are conceding 2.8 per game in their last 5; Bodo/Glimt are scoring 2.6 per game.
- Bodo/Glimt's xG against in two recent games is 0.66 per game.
The market prices over 2.5 at 1.3, implying a 76.92% chance. My read of the football — Bodo/Glimt's 10-for-10 over 2.5, their 2.6 goals per game, Ham-Kam's 2.8 conceded per game, and the 7-of-10 H2H over — puts the true probability above that figure. That gap is where the value lives. I'm recommending over 2.5 goals.