Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Hamburger SV hosting VfB Stuttgart on 17 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.
Stuttgart have been absolutely cooking. They've won their last three games, scored 10 goals and not conceded a single one. That's a 5–0 thrashing of Greuther Fürth at home, a 3–0 over Heidenheim, and a 2–0 on the road at Paderborn. In their last 10 games across all venues, they've picked up 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses, scoring 2.3 a game while keeping it to 1.1 conceded. Their away record over the last 20 games tells the same story: 9 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses, with 2.8 goals scored per outing. That's a team that goes on the road and puts the ball in the net.
Now, Hamburger SV have had a bit of a rollercoaster. They lost 0–5 to RB Leipzig and 0–5 to Mainz in quick succession, but they've bounced back with three straight wins — a 2–1 over Köln at home, a 2–0 against FC Copenhagen, and a 3–2 away at Hoffenheim. So they're not sitting in the doldrums. But their home record over 20 games is 6 wins, 8 draws, 6 losses, with just 1.3 goals scored per game. That's a team that grinds, draws a lot, and doesn't really open up the game.
The head-to-head is telling. In April, Stuttgart came to the table and won 4–0 at their own ground. The meeting before that, back in November, was at HSV's ground and Hamburger SV edged it 2–1. So at this specific venue, the last time they met, HSV got the job done. But the broader head-to-head record shows Stuttgart have won 11 of 19 meetings, though the last two have been split.
The counter-argument is real, though. HSV have won their last three, and the only recent meeting at their ground went their way. Plus, their home record has 8 draws out of 20, which means they're not easy to beat at home even when they're not winning. And Stuttgart's last two losses (to Dortmund and Hoffenheim) showed they can be caught on an off day.
But when you stack it all up — Stuttgart's away numbers, their current run of 10 goals from 0 conceded, the H2H history, and the fact that HSV's home record is built on draws rather than wins — the balance tips firmly Stuttgart's way. The market has them at 1.9 for the away win, which prices them at 52.63%. My own read is they're a touch better than that price suggests, closer to 55% on the evidence I'm looking at. There's value here.
Key Points:
- Stuttgart have won their last 3, scoring 10 and conceding 0
- Stuttgart's away record: 9W 4D 7L in 20 games, 2.8 goals per game
- HSV's home record: 6W 8D 6L in 20 games, 1.3 goals per game
- H2H: Stuttgart won 4–0 in April; HSV won 2–1 in November at this ground
- HSV have won their last 3 but their home record is built on draws
Verdict: I'm going with the VfB Stuttgart away win at 1.9.