Preview
PajimonVfB Stuttgart roll into Hamburger SV's ground on 17 October carrying the sort of form that makes you crack open a cold one before the whistle even blows. Their last three games have produced 10 goals and not a single concession — a 2–0 away at Paderborn, a 5–0 at home to Greuther Fürth, and a 3–0 against Heidenheim. Over the last 20 away games, Stuttgart have won 9 of them, scoring 2.8 per game, and that away record is the single most telling number in this fixture. Their defence in that same stretch has kept clean sheets in 6 of 20, and they have failed to score in only 3 of those 20 trips.
Hamburger SV have bounced back with three straight wins — a 3–2 at Hoffenheim, a 2–0 against Copenhagen, and a 2–1 against Köln. But look at the two games before that run and the picture gets ugly: a 0–5 defeat at RB Leipzig and a 0–5 home loss to Mainz 05. Their home record over 20 games is 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses, with 1.3 goals scored per game. The numbers don't suggest a strong home base; it is a ground where things can go sideways in a hurry. In their last 10 games across all venues, HSV have conceded 2.0 per game, which is a lot when you are facing a side that has scored 2.3 per game in the same window.
The head-to-head in the last 12 months is split: Stuttgart won 4–0 at their own ground in April, and HSV won 2–1 here in November. The older meetings — three more at both venues — all went Stuttgart's way, but those are historical and I will not dress them up as current form. What matters is that Stuttgart's attack is running well ahead of HSV's, and their defence is holding up far better. In the last 10 games, Stuttgart have scored 23 and conceded 11, while HSV have scored 15 and conceded 20.
The counter-argument is real, though. HSV have won their last three, and they did take the last meeting at this venue. Stuttgart's two losses in the last five — 0–1 to Dortmund and 1–2 at Hoffenheim — show they are not invincible. And those 8 draws in HSV's home record suggest this ground can produce a stalemate. The 0–5 to Mainz five weeks ago is a warning that HSV's back line can unravel, but the three wins since say they have found some stability.
Key Points:
- Stuttgart's last 3 games: 10 goals scored, 0 conceded
- Stuttgart's away record: 9 wins in 20 games, 2.8 goals per game
- HSV's home record: 6W 8D 6L, 1.3 goals per game
- HSV's last 5 includes two 0–5 defeats (Leipzig, Mainz)
- H2H last 12 months: Stuttgart 4–0 at their ground, HSV 2–1 here
My pick: away win.