Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction

Right, so we've got Hangzhou Greentown hosting SHANGHAI SIPG on 9 October, and if you've been following the Super League, you'll know the visitors are flying. Four wins from their last five, and if you stretch it back to ten games, it's seven wins, two draws and one loss. That's a side that's clicking, mate. They've scored 12 and conceded just 5 in that last five, and their away record over 20 games sits at 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses. The last three away trips in particular have been a statement: 6–4 at Ratchaburi, 3–0 at Shandong Luneng, and 1–0 at Sichuan Jiuniu. That's a team that travels well and doesn't get rattled on the road.

Now, the head-to-head in recent meetings is a bit thin. The last two times these two met — both at SHANGHAI SIPG's ground — ended 2–2 and 3–0, so the hosts at that venue got one win and one draw. There haven't been any meetings at Hangzhou Greentown's ground in the last 12 months, so we're a bit in the dark on how this specific venue plays out. The older games at this ground — a 2–2 draw and a 1–2 loss for Hangzhou Greentown — are historical and don't really tell us much about where things are now.

Hangzhou Greentown, to be fair, have had a decent run at home. Over 20 home games they've won 9, drawn 7 and lost 4, scoring 2.15 a game and conceding 1.55. And their last two home outings have been a 4–1 win over Wuhan Three Towns and a 6–0 demolition of Yunnan Yukun. That's a side that can put the ball in the net when the conditions are right. But the other home game in that last five stretch — a 2–3 loss to Chengdu Better City — and the 1–2 trip to Tianjin Teda show they're not as solid as the big scores might suggest. Their last 10 overall is 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, which is a bit patchy.

So here's the counter-argument: Hangzhou Greentown at home are not a team you write off. They've scored 14 in their last five and only failed to score in zero of those games. Their home record is respectable, and the big wins show they've got the firepower to hurt anyone. If SHANGHAI SIPG's defence slips — and they did concede 4 in that 6–4 game — the hosts could find a way in.

But the weight of evidence points the other way. SHANGHAI SIPG are in a different gear. Seven wins from ten, only one defeat, and a defensive record that's been tight. They've had 4 clean sheets in their last 10 compared to Hangzhou Greentown's 1. The market prices the away win at 2.4, which gives a bookmaker-implied probability of 41.67%. My own read, looking at the form, the away record and the recent head-to-head, is that SHANGHAI SIPG are a touch more likely to get the result than the market suggests. I'd put them at around 47 per cent, which means there's a bit of value in the price.

Key Points:

• SHANGHAI SIPG are 4W 1D 0L in their last five and 7W 2D 1L in their last ten, with only 5 goals conceded in that recent stretch.

• Hangzhou Greentown's home record is 9W 7D 4L over 20 games, but their last 10 overall is 4W 2D 4L.

• The last two recent head-to-head meetings ended 2–2 and 3–0, both at SHANGHAI SIPG's ground; no meetings at this venue in the last 12 months.

• SHANGHAI SIPG have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10; Hangzhou Greentown have kept just 1.

• The away win at 2.4 carries a bookmaker-implied probability of 41.67%, which I think is slightly underpriced given the form gap.

My tip: SHANGHAI SIPG away win.