Harborough Town vs Southport Prediction

Right, so we've got Harborough Town hosting Southport on 10 October, and if I'm being honest, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.

Harborough Town at home are the real deal. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 14, drawn 4 and lost just 2. That's 2.3 points per game, and they're averaging 2.05 goals a game while conceding just 1. Eight clean sheets in 20 home games tells you the backline is solid when the lads are at home. And they've won their last game, 3–2 against St Albans City in the FA Cup on 3 October, so the confidence is there.

Now look at Southport on the road. Their last 20 away games read 7 wins, 2 draws, 11 losses. That's 1.15 points per game, and they're averaging 1.95 goals conceded a game. More telling, their last three away trips all ended 0–2 — down 2–0 at Morecambe on 19 September, down 2–0 at Worksop Town on 12 September, and down 2–0 at Spalding United on 5 September. Three straight away losses, all by the same scoreline. That's a pattern, and it's not a good one for the visitors.

The counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play, is that Harborough Town's last five games are a bit patchy. Two wins, a draw and two losses. They lost 0–3 to Hereford at home on 8 September and drew 0–0 with AFC Telford United on 12 September. So the home record is strong over 20 games, but the last few weeks haven't been all sunshine. Southport did pick up a 2–2 draw at home against Spennymoor Town on 26 September, so they're not completely without a spark.

There's no head-to-head on record between these two, so we're going on the numbers and the form. And the numbers say Harborough Town at home are the stronger side, and Southport away are struggling to find a way into games.

Key Points:

• Harborough Town have won 14 of their last 20 home games, averaging 2.05 goals and 1 conceded per game

• Southport have lost 11 of their last 20 away games, and their last three away trips all ended 0–2

• Harborough Town won 3–2 at home against St Albans City on 3 October

• Southport's last five games: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses

• No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides

So my call is a Harborough Town home win. The home record is too strong, the away form of Southport is too poor, and those last three 0–2 away losses tell you the visitors are not finding it out there.