Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Hartford Athletic hosting Charleston Battery on 14 October, and I'm telling you, the numbers don't lie when it comes to this one. You can watch the last two games if you want, but the home and away records are where the real story lives.
Hartford at home is where it's at. Over their last 20 home games, they've picked up 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses, averaging 1.7 points per game. They score 1.45 per game at home and concede just 1.15. Now look at Charleston Battery on the road: 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in 20 away games, 1.1 points per game. They concede 1.55 per game away. That's a big gap. Hartford's home defence is tighter, their scoring is up there, and they're simply the better side when the home crowd is behind them. Six clean sheets in 20 home games versus four for Charleston on the road tells you who's keeping it tight.
The head-to-head adds a little spice. The only meeting within the last 12 months was back in September at Charleston's ground, and Hartford came away with a 2-1 win. At this venue there's no recent history, but the older meetings show Charleston Battery winning 1 of 2 at Hartford's ground. Those are well over a year old, so I wouldn't put much weight on them. The recent meeting says Hartford have the edge in this fixture.
Now here's the flip side, and I'll be honest with you: Hartford's last two games have been ugly. They lost 1-2 at Pittsburgh and 0-1 at home to Louisville City. That's a run of two losses, scoring just 1 and conceding 3. Their form over the last five is 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses. That's not the picture you want to walk into a home game with. Charleston, meanwhile, have lost just their last one (0-2 to Louisville at home) and picked up 2 wins and a draw before that. They're not in great shape either, but they're not in freefall. Both teams are a bit scrappy right now, which makes the home and away records even more important.
The market has Charleston as the slight favourite at 2.3, with Hartford at 2.85. But I'm looking at the home and away numbers and I see a different picture. Hartford's home record is simply better than Charleston's away record across the board. The points per game gap, the conceded goals gap, the clean sheet numbers - it all points the same way. I rate Hartford's chances higher than the market's 35.09%, and that's where my money goes.
Key Points:
- Hartford Athletic's home record: 9W 7D 4L in 20 games, 1.7 PPG, 1.15 conceded per game
- Charleston Battery's away record: 6W 4D 10L in 20 games, 1.1 PPG, 1.55 conceded per game
- Hartford won the only recent head-to-head meeting (2-1 away in September)
- Hartford lost their last two matches, scoring 1 and conceding 3
- Charleston Battery have lost just their last game but won 2 of their previous 3
My verdict: I'm going with the Hartford Athletic home win. The home record is too strong to ignore, and while the last two games have been rough, the numbers at this ground tell you who's got the edge.