Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren Prediction

The wise one knows that a team's home record speaks louder than a thousand away days. Heart Of Midlothian have won 15 of their last 20 home games, drawing 4 and losing just once. In that span they scored 39 goals and conceded only 16, keeping 8 clean sheets and failing to score in just one of those 20 matches. That is a record that needs no embellishment. It simply is.

ST Mirren, however, travel with a heavy heart. Their last three matches have all ended in defeat — 0–3 to Dundee Utd at home on 19 September, 0–1 at Rangers on 9 September, and 1–2 to Celtic at home on 5 September. In those three games they scored a single goal and conceded six. Their away record over 20 games reads 7 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses, with 31 goals scored and 26 conceded. The numbers do not paint a picture of a side comfortable on the road. A team that has lost three in a row, scoring just once, must ask itself what it is for.

The head-to-head at this ground is brief but telling. In the recent meeting here on 14 January, Heart Of Midlothian won 2–0. ST Mirren have not won here in the recent meeting. The reverse venue at ST Mirren's ground has seen them win 1–0 and draw 2–2, but this is not their ground. This is where Hearts have their say.

Yet the wise one must also see the other side, for balance is the way. Heart Of Midlothian's last two matches have been a 1–1 draw at Kilmarnock and a 1–2 loss at Falkirk, both away from home. Their form is not without a wobble, and the draw on 19 September shows they are not invincible. ST Mirren did pick up a 1–0 win at Kilmarnock on 2 September, showing they are not without a spark. The draw at 5.25 and ST Mirren's win at 7.00 are both prices the market has priced low, and that is as it should be. A team that has lost three in a row, scoring once, is not the one to back against a side that has won 15 of 20 at home.

Key Points:

• Heart Of Midlothian have won 15 of their last 20 home games, conceding just 16 goals in that span

• ST Mirren have lost their last three matches, scoring only 1 goal and conceding 6

• The recent head-to-head at this venue saw Heart Of Midlothian win 2–0 on 14 January

• ST Mirren's away record over 20 games: 7W 6D 7L, with 4 games where they failed to score

• Heart Of Midlothian's last two matches were a draw and a loss, both played away from home

The verdict: Heart Of Midlothian home win.