Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren Prediction

Right, so we've got Heart Of Midlothian hosting ST Mirren at their ground on 10 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.

Let's start with the home side. Heart Of Midlothian have been absolutely solid at home over the last 20 games — 15 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss. That's 2.45 points per game, and they're averaging 1.95 goals a match while conceding just 0.8. Eight clean sheets in those 20 home fixtures, and they've only failed to score once. In their last five matches across all grounds, they've picked up 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Four of those five went over 2.5 goals, and in four of five both teams found the net. They're scoring, they're keeping it tight, and at home they're the team you want on your side.

Now ST Mirren. Look at their last five: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses. They're on a three-game losing run right now — scored 1, conceded 6 across those three. Their away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses, which is a 1.35 points-per-game output. They've failed to score in 4 of those 20 away games. In their last five matches, they've only managed 5 goals and conceded 9. The form is not there, and the away numbers back that up.

The head-to-head at this venue is telling. The only recent meeting at Heart Of Midlothian's ground — back in January 2026 — ended 2-0 to the hosts. A historical meeting here in February 2025 saw Hearts win 3-1. ST Mirren have only won one of the three recent meetings between these sides, and that was at their own ground. The draw at ST Mirren's end in October 2025 was 2-2, so even when they get a result, it's been tight.

The counter-argument? ST Mirren did pick up a 1-0 win at Kilmarnock on 2 September, and they've got a 3-3 draw with Motherwell in their last five, so they can score. The BTTS numbers on both sides' records sit at 11 out of 20, so there's a reasonable chance both find the net. And Heart Of Midlothian's last two matches were a draw and a loss, so they're not on a perfect run. But that's a thin reed when you look at the overall picture.

Key Points:

• Heart Of Midlothian: 15W 4D 1L in 20 home games, 1.95 scored per game, 0.8 conceded per game

• ST Mirren: 7W 6D 7L in 20 away games, currently on a 3-game losing run (scored 1, conceded 6)

• H2H at this venue: Heart Of Midlothian won 2-0 in January 2026; a historical meeting in February 2025 was 3-1

• ST Mirren have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches

• Heart Of Midlothian have scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches

The numbers point one way, and the form backs it up. Heart Of Midlothian at home against a ST Mirren side that's lost their last three and struggles on the road — I'm going with the home win at 1.47.