Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction

Welcome to another matchday where we look past the headline names and focus on the overlooked. As Umery Underdog, I always hunt for value in the pups of the pitch, but this fixture between Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long presents a tricky puzzle for the underdog hunter. Henan enters as the clear favourite at 1.65, sitting 13th with 24 points from 23 games, while Chongqing sits higher in the table at 7th with 30 points from 24 games. Despite the table position, Chongqing arrives as the away underdog at 5.25, and that is where my analysis begins.

Henan Jianye’s home record over the last five fixtures shows a stubborn defensive structure, conceding just 1.00 goals per game while scoring 1.60. Their home results read 20% wins, 60% draws, and 20% losses. Recent form highlights a team that can produce high-scoring draws, evidenced by a 4-4 thriller against Shenyang Urban and a 1-1 stalemate with Dalian Zhixing. However, their points trend is declining, and they have struggled to convert home advantage into consistent wins. Their goal expectancy at home sits at 1.50, with a defensive rating that keeps them competitive but rarely dominant.

Chongqing Tongliang Long’s away form tells a starkly different story. In their last five away matches, they have secured zero wins, recording four losses and one draw. They are averaging a mere 0.40 goals scored per game on the road, while conceding 1.40. Their points trend is also declining, and their mathematical analysis shows a negative slope for goals scored. The away goal expectancy for Chongqing is a low 0.70, reflecting a side that struggles to break down opposition defences when travelling. Recent results include a 0-1 loss to Dalian Zhixing, a 2-3 defeat to SHANGHAI SIPG, and a scoreless draw with Qingdao Youth Island. The data paints a picture of a team that finds it incredibly difficult to generate meaningful attacking output away from home.

When measuring the underdog market, we look for a clear edge. Chongqing’s 5.25 odds imply a roughly 19% chance of victory, but their actual away win rate is 0%, and their attacking metrics are severely suppressed. While the head-to-head record shows a 1-1 draw in their last meeting and Henan’s home game often sees both teams score (80% rate in the last 10), the underlying numbers for Chongqing simply do not support a profitable underdog play. The expected total goals sit around 2.20, making the Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS markets evenly priced at 1.90 and 1.91 respectively, offering no clear statistical edge. Without a positive expected value in the underdog segment, the smartest play is to step aside.

Key Points:

• Henan Jianye averages 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded at home, with a 60% draw rate in their last five home games.

• Chongqing Tongliang Long has won 0% of their last five away matches, averaging just 0.40 goals per game on the road.

• Head-to-head history shows a tight 1-1 draw in their most recent encounter, with both teams scoring in all previous meetings.

• Chongqing’s away goal expectancy is a low 0.70, and their points trend is declining, negating value at 5.25 odds.

• Market odds for Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS are evenly matched at 1.90 and 1.91, offering no clear mathematical edge.

After weighing the underdog metrics against the provided odds, I see no profitable angle for the pups here. Chongqing’s away struggles and suppressed attacking output make backing them or any related underdog market too risky. I will be sitting this one out and recommending No Bet.