Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction

Welcome to the Super League clash between Henan Jianye and Dalian Zhixing! As Umery Underdog, I’m always looking for the overlooked pups to shine, and today Dalian Zhixing sits at 4.00 odds as the clear underdog against Henan Jianye (1.85). But before we cheer for the little guy, let’s look at the facts on the ground.

Dalian Zhixing sits in 4th place with 28 points from 19 games, while Henan Jianye trails in 9th with 21 points from 19. On paper, Dalian looks the stronger side, but their away form tells a different story. In their last six away fixtures, Dalian hasn’t tasted a single win. They’ve drawn six and lost three, scoring a mere 0.83 goals per game on the road. Meanwhile, Henan Jianye at home has seen their goals scored trend improve, averaging 1.75 goals per game in their last four home matches, though they’ve also conceded 1.50 per game.

The head-to-head record is tightly contested. In four previous meetings, Dalian has won twice, Henan once, and they’ve drawn once. Their most recent encounter ended in a 1-1 draw in the FA Cup just ten days ago. Both teams share a 70% both teams to score rate over their last ten matches, which aligns with the league’s competitive nature. However, Dalian’s away attack is struggling to find the net consistently, and Henan’s home defense, while conceding regularly, has kept two clean sheets in ten games.

Bookmakers have priced Dalian at 4.00, which usually screams value for an underdog hunter. Yet, the underlying metrics don’t back a sudden away victory. Dalian’s away goal expectancy is low, and their tendency to grind out draws away from home (66.67% draw rate in their last six away games) makes a straight win bet risky. Henan’s home win rate is also modest at 25%, but the data points toward a cagey, low-scoring affair where Dalian’s lack of away firepower holds them back.

When the numbers don’t align with the underdog’s price, I prefer to step aside rather than force a pick. There’s no clear edge here for Dalian to break their away hoodoo, and backing a team that draws 66% of their away games at 4.00 odds isn’t the long-term profitable route I look for.

Key Points:

• Dalian Zhixing is the underdog at 4.00 odds but has won 0 of their last 6 away matches.

• Dalian averages just 0.83 goals scored per away game, while Henan averages 1.75 at home.

• Both teams have a 70% BTTS rate in their last 10 games, but Dalian’s away attack lacks consistency.

• The last meeting ended 1-1, and Dalian’s away form shows a 66.67% draw rate.

• No statistical signal strongly supports an underdog victory at the current price.

Given the lack of value in the underdog’s pricing and Dalian’s persistent away struggles, I’m marking this one as a pass. Final Pick: No Bet.