Preview
PajimonLook, I'll be honest with you — this one's got me scratching my head in the best way. Henan Jianye have not won a single game in their last five. Not one. Five draws, eight goals scored, eight conceded. It's like watching a pot of braai that just won't catch — the coals are there, the meat is on, but the flame just won't take. And now they're at home, where their record over 20 games is 8 wins, 8 draws, 4 losses, so they do have a base to stand on.
But here's what's got me reaching for the beer: Tianjin Teda have won their last three. Three straight wins, four goals scored, one conceded. In their last five it's 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses. In their last ten it's 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses. Their defence has been tight — 0.4 goals conceded per game in the last five, 1.0 per game in the last ten. They've kept three clean sheets in five games. That's not a team that's coasting; that's a team that's locked in.
Now, the counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play: Tianjin Teda's away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 7 draws, 8 losses. That's not pretty. And Henan Jianye at home have 8 wins from 20, which is a solid base. The head-to-head is mostly historical — the only meeting in the last 12 months was back in May at Tianjin Teda's ground, where Henan Jianye won 2–1. So there's no recent pattern at this venue to lean on.
But when I look at the form — the actual, current form — it's Tianjin Teda by a mile. Six wins in ten games against one win in ten for Henan Jianye. The points per game tells the story: 2.0 to 1.1. And the defensive numbers? Tianjin Teda have conceded 10 in 10 games; Henan Jianye have conceded 15. The market has Henan Jianye as the favourite at 1.76, which implies about 57%. But the form says otherwise. I rate Tianjin Teda's chance of winning at around 35%, which is well above the 21% the market is pricing in. That's value, and I'm comfortable with it.
Key Points:
- Henan Jianye have drawn all of their last five matches (0W 5D 0L)
- Tianjin Teda are on a three-game winning run and have won 6 of their last 10
- Tianjin Teda's defence has conceded just 0.4 goals per game in the last five
- Henan Jianye's home record is 8W 8D 4L over 20 games, but current form is poor
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (May 2026) was at Tianjin Teda's ground
My pick: Tianjin Teda away win.