Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Henan Jianye hosting Tianjin Teda on 16 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a story worth telling.
Tianjin Teda have been absolutely flying. Three wins in their last three games — 1–0 at Chengdu Better City, 1–0 against Shenyang Urban at home, and 2–1 past Hangzhou Greentown. In their last ten matches across all grounds, they've won six, drawn two and lost two, racking up 2 points per game. Their defence has been tight too, conceding just 10 goals in those ten, with five clean sheets. When you look at their away record over 20 games, they've picked up 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses, scoring 1.05 a game and conceding 1.2. Not the most dominant away numbers, but the current form is telling a very different story.
Now, Henan Jianye. Five games, five draws. Not a single win. They've scored 8 and conceded 8 in that stretch, and in their last ten across all grounds, they've managed just 1 win, 8 draws and 1 loss. At home over 20 games, they've got 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses — a decent record, sure, but the last five games have been a sea of draws. They're scoring 1.3 a game and conceding 1.5 in that ten-game window, which isn't great when you're trying to break a run.
The head-to-head is mostly historical — four older meetings all went to Tianjin Teda, with scores like 1–0, 3–4, 1–0 and 1–2. The one recent meeting, back in May at Tianjin's ground, went to Henan Jianye 2–1. So the pattern is old but the recent form is screaming Tianjin Teda.
The counter-argument? Henan Jianye's home record is solid — 8 wins in 20 home games, 1.6 points per game, and they've kept 7 clean sheets. They've also drawn their last five, which means they're not losing, just not winning. And that May meeting at Tianjin's ground did go their way. Plus, both teams' records lean towards low-scoring games: Henan Jianye have had 3 under-2.5 results in their last five, Tianjin Teda 4, and the head-to-head has been 16 under 2.5 out of 21 meetings. If you're thinking goals, the under is the safer angle.
Key Points:
- Tianjin Teda have won their last 3 games and 6 of their last 10, with 2 points per game
- Henan Jianye have drawn all of their last 5 matches without a single win
- The head-to-head (mostly historical) shows Tianjin Teda winning 4 of 4 older meetings
- Both teams' recent records lean towards under 2.5 goals (3/5 and 4/5 respectively)
- Tianjin Teda's away record over 20 games: 5W 7D 8L, 1.05 scored per game
My verdict: I'm going with the away win for Tianjin Teda at 4.7. The form gap is too big to ignore — three straight wins against five straight draws, and the historical head-to-head backs it up. The market's pricing them at about 21%, but I'd put their chances closer to 38%. That's value worth a punt.