Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Friday night clash in the 2. Bundesliga. Hertha BSC, sitting pretty in 7th, welcome an Arminia Bielefeld side who are down in 12th and looking a bit lost on their travels. On paper, this has home win written all over it, but let's dig into the numbers and see if the bookies have got it right.

Hertha have been turning their gaff into a fortress lately. In their last six home games, they've won five and lost just one – a shock 0-2 defeat to Magdeburg a couple of weeks back. But they bounced back from that in style, putting six past Kaiserslautern in the cup. At home this season, they're averaging over two goals a game and conceding just half a goal. That's the sort of form that gets you promoted, not that they're quite there yet.

Now, let's talk about Arminia Bielefeld. Bless 'em, they just can't buy a win on the road. In their last five away days, it's been three losses and two draws. They're shipping two goals a game when they leave home, and while they nicked a decent point at Darmstadt, they've also been turned over by the likes of Nürnberg and Bochum recently. Their last away win? You'd have to go back a while.

When these two have met in the past, it's been a bit of a snoozefest – loads of draws and low scores. But forget ancient history. This Hertha side is in a different groove right now. They're creating chances (over 12 shots a game), taking them pretty well, and are solid at the back. Arminia, for all their huffing and puffing away from home (15 shots a game on average), have got a real problem hitting the target, with a shot accuracy of just over 25%.

The bookies have Hertha at evens (2.00) to win. Now, I'm no mathematician, but when a team with an 83% home win rate faces a team with a 0% away win rate, those odds look more than fair. Arminia's only hope is that Hertha have an off day like they did against Magdeburg, but I reckon that was a one-off.

Key Points:

Hertha have won 5 of their last 6 home games (83% win rate).

Arminia are winless in their last 5 away matches (0% win rate).

Hertha score 2.17 goals per game at home; Arminia concede 2.00 per game away.

Head-to-head history is tight, but recent form is heavily in Hertha's favour.

• The market odds of 2.00 for a Hertha win offer genuine value.

All the signs point one way here. Hertha are strong at home, Bielefeld are poor on the road. I'm expecting the home side to control the game, create the better chances, and come away with all three points. A 2-0 win feels about right.