Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction

Right, so Hertha BSC are sitting pretty at home, and SpVgg Greuther Fürth are having a bit of a nightmare on the road. This 2. Bundesliga clash on 11 October looks like it's got a clear shape to it, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Start with the hosts. Hertha BSC have won four of their last five, drawing just once — that 2-2 at Augsburg on 2 October. Before that, they were piling on the goals: 2-1 at home to Magdeburg on 6 September, 3-1 at Osnabrück on 13 September, 2-1 at Dresden on 19 September, and 3-1 at Hertha Zehlendorf on 29 September. Four wins, one draw, no losses. They've scored 12 and conceded 6 across those five, which is 2.4 a game on the attack. Their home record over 20 games is 9W 6D 5L, conceding just 1.0 per game. That's a solid base to build on. And in the head-to-head at this ground, they beat Fürth 2-1 back in May 2026. The older meetings at this venue go back further, but the recent one is the one that matters, and it's a Hertha win.

Now the visitors. Fürth have won just one of their last five, drawing two and losing two. Their last outing was a 0-5 thrashing at Stuttgart on 1 October — that's a tough pill to swallow, and it's the kind of result that rattles a dressing room. Their away record over 20 games is 6W 4D 10L, conceding 1.75 per game. That's not a great track record for a team travelling to a side in Hertha's current form. In the head-to-head, the meeting at Fürth's ground in December 2025 was a 3-3 draw, so they're not completely toothless, but that's the other end of the venue.

The counter-argument? Well, Hertha's last game was a 2-2 draw, and they haven't kept a clean sheet in five. They've conceded in every one of those last five. And Fürth did score in three of their last five, so they're not without a goal threat. The 3-3 at Fürth's ground in December 2025 shows these two can produce open games. But the weight of evidence — Hertha's 7W 3D 0L record over their last 10, the home record, the head-to-head at this ground — all points firmly to the hosts.

The market prices Hertha's win at 1.6, which implies about 62.5%. I'd put their chances a touch higher, around 65%, given the recent results and the home record. That's a small but real edge.

Key Points:

• Hertha BSC: 4W 1D 0L in last 5, scoring 2.4 per game, no losses

• Hertha home record: 9W 6D 5L over 20 games, 1.0 conceded per game

• H2H at Hertha's ground: 2-1 win in May 2026

• Fürth away record: 6W 4D 10L over 20 games, 1.75 conceded per game

• Fürth's last game: 0-5 loss at Stuttgart on 1 October

My pick: Hertha BSC home win.