Preview
Mr SimpleAlright, gather round. We've got a proper top-of-the-table clash... well, sort of. Darmstadt are sitting pretty in 2nd, seven points ahead of Hertha in 7th. On paper, you'd fancy the away side, but football's not played on paper, is it? Let's have a proper butcher's at the form.
Hertha are the kings of the draw lately. In their last four proper league games, they've shared the points three times: 2-2 with Karlsruher, 0-0 with leaders Schalke (a great result, that), and 1-1 with Arminia Bielefeld. They're solid, hard to break down, especially at home where they've only conceded 1.17 goals a game on average. But scoring? That's been a bit of a problem. Since that 6-1 cup romp, they've only managed more than one goal once in the league.
Now, Darmstadt. Flying high, but have you seen their travel sickness? In their last four competitive away days, it's been a right old stalemate: 3-3 at Bochum, 2-2 at Paderborn (who are 3rd, mind), and 0-0 at Elversberg (4th). The only loss was in the cup to a top-tier side. They haven't won on the road in ages. They score fewer and concede more when they leave home.
So what does that tell us? We've got a Hertha side that's drawing for fun, against a Darmstadt side that can't buy an away win but keeps nicking draws against good teams. They even drew 0-0 when they met back in August. The history books say these two are evenly matched head-to-head, especially in Berlin.
Key Points:
Draw Specialists: Hertha have drawn 3 of their last 4 competitive matches.
Away Day Blues: Darmstadt are winless in their last 4 competitive away games (D3, L1).
Recent History: The last meeting this season ended 0-0.
Defensive Solidity: Hertha concede just 1.17 goals per game at home; Darmstadt let in 1.75 on the road.
- League Reality: Darmstadt (2nd) are the better side over the season, but current form suggests a tight affair.
Sometimes the maths points you to a result, and the form screams it from the rooftops. With both teams struggling for wins in their recent relevant fixtures and looking more comfortable not losing, this has 1-1 or 0-0 written all over it. The bookies have the draw at a tasty 3.60, which looks like value to me.