Hibernian vs Celtic Prediction

Look, I'll be straight with you — this one's got the smell of a Celtic win on it, and I'm not saying that because I've got a hunch. The numbers are doing the talking, and they're talking loud. You can have your braai and your cold one, but when the stats line up like this, you follow the meat.

Celtic's away record over the last 20 games is 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses, with 1.85 points per game and 1.75 goals scored per outing. Hibernian at home over the same stretch sit at 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses, 1.4 points per game and 1.4 goals scored. That's a clear gap, and it's not just one or two games — it's twenty. Celtic travel better, plain and simple. No Afrikaans needed for that one, my friend.

Now look at the head-to-head at this ground. In the last 12 months, Celtic have won both meetings here — 1–2 in November 2025 and 1–2 in May 2026. Hibernian have not managed a single point in those two. The reverse fixture at Celtic's ground saw Hibernian win 2–1 in February, so it's not like the Hoops can't beat them, but at this venue the pattern is clear and recent.

Hibernian's form is not helping their cause. They've lost their last two games — 1–2 to Falkirk at home on 17 October and 0–1 at Dundee United away on 10 October — and in those two they've scored just one goal and conceded three. Over their last five matches, they've managed one win, one draw and three losses, with 0.8 points per game. Their xG numbers over four recent games show 1.59 created per game, which is not enough against a side that's been generating 2.24 per game.

The counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play: Celtic lost to Celta Vigo 1–2 at home on 22 October, three days before this kickoff, and they were beaten 1–4 by Benfica away on 15 October. Those are European nights, and they don't sit well. But Celtic put seven past Hearts at home on 18 October and two past Motherwell away on 11 October, with the Hearts win landing right between those two European losses. The domestic form is there. The away record over 20 games doesn't lie. And Hibernian, for all their home record, are currently on a two-game losing run and have only won one of their last five.

The xG picture backs it up too. Celtic have been creating 2.24 expected goals per game over their last four matches with data, while Hibernian have been creating 1.59. On the defensive side, Celtic have conceded 1.71 per game against, while Hibernian have conceded 1.45. Both sides are leaking a bit, but Celtic's attack is the one that's going to find the gaps.

Key Points:

• Celtic's away record: 11W 4D 5L over 20 games, 1.85 PPG

• Hibernian's home record: 8W 4D 8L over 20 games, 1.4 PPG

• H2H at this ground: Celtic won both recent meetings (1–2, 1–2)

• Hibernian lost their last two games, scoring just 1 and conceding 3

• Celtic's xG output (2.24 per game) sits well above Hibernian's (1.59 per game)

My verdict: I'm going with the Celtic away win. The away record, the head-to-head at this ground, and Hibernian's current form all point the same way. The market has them at 1.7, and I rate their chance a touch higher than that price suggests.