HNK Gorica vs Vukovar Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this bottom-half battle in the Croatian HNL. HNK Gorica welcome Vukovar to their patch, and honestly, neither side has been setting the world alight lately.

Gorica are sitting 8th with 14 points, while Vukovar are propping up the table in 10th with 10 points. Both teams need the points, but the form guide makes for interesting reading.

Gorica have been proper Jekyll and Hyde this season. Their last 10 games show five wins and five losses - no draws whatsoever! They're either brilliant or terrible, no middle ground. They've had some cracking results recently, smashing Lokomotiva 4-1 and putting six past Rudes in the cup. But here's the problem - their home form is shocking. Just two wins from their last six at home, conceding two goals per game on their own patch. They've lost to Hajduk Split (1-3), Varazdin (1-3), Rijeka (1-3), and Osijek (0-1) at home recently. Not exactly fortress-like, is it?

Vukovar, meanwhile, have been grinding out results. They pulled off a shocker beating Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 at home recently, which shows they can turn up when they want. They've also drawn with Istra (1-1) and Lokomotiva (1-1). But away from home? Not great. Just one win in their last four on the road, and they're letting in two goals per game when travelling.

The only previous meeting between these two was a 2-2 draw back in August, which suggests we might be in for a few goals.

Looking at the numbers, both teams are pretty leaky at the back - both conceding 1.5 goals per game overall. Gorica score more (2.0 vs 1.0), but that's mainly because they're brilliant away and rubbish at home. Both teams have scored in 70% of Gorica's games and 60% of Vukovar's games, which tells you neither defence is exactly watertight.

The bookies have Gorica as favorites at 1.88, which seems a bit rich given their home form. Both teams to score is priced at 1.91, which looks tasty given the defensive issues on both sides.

Key Points:

• Gorica have won 50% of their last 10 games but lost 66.67% of their last 6 home games

• Vukovar have only won 25% of their away games this season

• Both teams concede 1.5 goals per game on average

• Both teams have scored in 70% of Gorica's recent games

• The only previous meeting ended 2-2

• Gorica are coming off a 4-1 win but have lost 4 of their last 6 at home

Given Gorica's defensive frailties at home and Vukovar's ability to nick goals on their travels, I'm fancying both teams to get on the scoresheet here. Gorica's attack is potent when they click, but their home defence has been about as solid as a chocolate teapot.