Preview
Mr SimpleHNK Hajduk Split are coming into this one with serious momentum, and their home numbers back that up. Four wins from their last five matches, including 2–1 victories over both Ajax and Dinamo Zagreb at their own ground, and they've won their last two on the bounce, scoring four and conceding just two. Their home record over 20 games is 15 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, with 2.1 goals per game and only 0.85 conceded. That's a side that sets the tone at home, no doubt about it.
NK Varazdin, for their part, haven't lost in five — two wins and three draws — and they've kept four clean sheets in that stretch. But their away record over 20 games tells a different story: 11 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses, 1.75 points per game, and 1.25 goals conceded per game. They're solid, but the numbers say they're more vulnerable on the road. Their last away win was a 1–0 at Lokomotiva Zagreb, and before that they were drawing 2–2 at Gorica. There's resilience there, but it's not the same as what Hajduk are showing at home.
The head-to-head at this ground over the last 12 months gives us two meetings: Hajduk won 3–1 in May, and the other was a 1–1 draw. Varazdin did grab a 2–1 win at their own end in August, but that's the reverse fixture. At Hajduk's ground, the home side has the edge in the recent record, and the 3–1 scoreline in May suggests they can open up when they want to.
The counter-argument is real though. Varazdin are unbeaten in five, they've scored in three of those five, and their xG numbers over eight recent games show 1.37 per game for and 0.78 against. They're not a team that folds. And the H2H has been tight — two of the four recent meetings ended in draws. If Varazdin park the bus and wait for their moment, this could go to a 1–1. That's the risk with any away side that's kept it clean for a stretch.
Key Points:
- Hajduk have won 15 of their last 20 home games, scoring 2.1 per game and conceding 0.85
- Varazdin are unbeaten in 5 but their away record is 11W 2D 7L with 1.25 conceded per game
- At this ground, the last two meetings were 3–1 and 1–1
- Hajduk's last two wins came at home, both 2–1
- Varazdin's away defence has conceded 25 goals in 20 outings
So here's where I land. Hajduk's home record is the strongest thing in this fixture, their recent form is on fire, and Varazdin's away numbers say they'll struggle to keep a clean sheet. I'm going with the HNK Hajduk Split home win.