Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got HNK Hajduk Split at home against NK Varazdin on 18 October, and let me tell you, this one's got the smell of a braai on it. Hajduk are cooking at their ground. Over the last 20 home games, they've won 15, drawn 2 and lost just 3, scoring 2.1 per game and conceding only 0.85. That's a record that makes you want to pass the boerewors. And their last two home games? 2–1 over Dinamo Zagreb on 10 October and 2–1 over Ajax on 15 October. Four wins in their last five across all competitions, and they've won the last two straight, scoring 4 and conceding 2. This man is in the zone.
Now, NK Varazdin are not to be written off. They've gone unbeaten in their last five — two wins and three draws, no losses. They beat Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 away on 11 October, and before that they've drawn 0–0 with Osijek and 0–0 with Istra 1961 at home. Their away record over 20 games is 11 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses, scoring 1.9 per game but conceding 1.25. That's a decent away side, but it's not the same as what Hajduk are putting up at home. Varazdin's xG against over their last 8 games with data is 0.78 per game, which tells you they're keeping things tight, but they've also failed to score in 2 of those last 5, including two 0–0 draws.
The head-to-head at this venue over the last 12 months gives us 2 meetings: Hajduk won 3–1 in May 2026 and they drew 1–1 in November 2025. So the most recent meeting here went to Hajduk, and the one before that was a draw. The reverse venue at Varazdin's ground also shows 2 meetings — a 2–1 Varazdin win in August 2026 and a 1–1 draw in February 2026. So this fixture has been competitive, but at Hajduk's ground, the home side has the edge in the most recent meeting.
The counter-argument is real though. Varazdin are unbeaten in 5, and the H2H at this venue has been close — 3–1 and 1–1. Two of Varazdin's last 5 were 0–0 draws, which tells you they can park the bus. And the market is pricing the draw at 3.55, which suggests the bookies see a real chance of this going to a stalemate. But here's the thing: Hajduk's home record is 15 wins in 20, and they've only failed to score in 1 of those 20 home games. Varazdin have failed to score in 2 of their last 5, including two 0–0 draws. The question is whether Varazdin's defensive discipline can hold up against a Hajduk side that's been scoring 2.1 per game at home.
Key Points:
- HNK Hajduk Split have won 15 of their last 20 home games, scoring 2.1 per game and conceding 0.85
- Hajduk won their last 2 matches (2–1 vs Dinamo Zagreb, 2–1 vs Ajax) and 4 of their last 5 overall
- NK Varazdin are unbeaten in 5 (2W 3D 0L) but their away record is 11W 2D 7L in 20 games
- The last 2 meetings at Hajduk's ground: 3–1 Hajduk win (May 2026) and 1–1 draw (Nov 2025)
- Varazdin have failed to score in 2 of their last 5, including two 0–0 draws
My verdict: HNK Hajduk Split home win at 1.83. The home record, the recent form, and the most recent meeting at this venue all point the same way. Varazdin's unbeaten run is impressive, but it's built on low-scoring draws and a cup win against Zagora. This is a side that's been scoring 2.1 per game at home meeting a side that's conceded 1.25 per game on the road. I rate the home win at around 62%, which sits above the market's 54.64% implied probability. The numbers say Hajduk take this one, and I'm happy to back that call.