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HNK Hajduk Split arrive at this fixture in strong form, and the numbers at their ground tell a clear story. In 20 home games spanning from 17 January to 15 October, Hajduk have won 15, drawn 2 and lost 3, averaging 2.35 points per game. They score 2.1 goals per game at home and concede just 0.85, keeping a clean sheet in 10 of those 20 matches. Their last two home games have been 2–1 victories over Ajax and Dinamo Zagreb, and across their last five matches in all competitions they have won four and lost one.
NK Varazdin, by contrast, travel with a more mixed record. In 20 away games, they have won 11, drawn 2 and lost 7, averaging 1.75 points per game. They score 1.9 per game away and concede 1.25, keeping a clean sheet in 7 of 20. Their last five matches in all competitions produced two wins and three draws, with two of those draws being 0–0. Their most recent result was a 1–0 away win over Lokomotiva Zagreb on 11 October.
The head-to-head at this venue is small but telling. In the two recent meetings at Hajduk's ground, the hosts have won once (3–1 on 3 May) and drawn once (1–1 on 29 November 2025). They have not lost to Varazdin here in the recent meetings. The reverse fixture at Varazdin's ground has also been tight: a 2–1 Varazdin win on 2 August and a 1–1 draw on 28 February. The most recent meeting between the two sides, on 2 August at Varazdin's ground, ended 2–1 to the hosts.
The strongest counter-argument is that Varazdin have been difficult to break down. Three of their last five matches ended in draws, two of them 0–0, and they have kept a clean sheet in four of those five. Their away record, while not as dominant as Hajduk's home record, still produces 11 wins in 20 games. The 0–3 defeat Hajduk suffered at Rijeka on 20 September, while an away game, is a reminder that the hosts are not impervious.
Key Points:
- Hajduk's 15 wins from 20 home games and 2.1 goals per game at home make them the clear favourites on record.
- Varazdin's last five matches include three draws, two of them 0–0, suggesting a defensive approach.
- The two recent meetings at this venue produced one Hajduk win and one draw; no loss for the hosts.
- Varazdin's away record of 11W 2D 7L means they are competitive on the road, not a pushover.
- The most recent H2H meeting (2 August) was a 2–1 Varazdin win at their own ground.
The case for a Hajduk home win is strong on the numbers, but the sample at this specific venue is only two games, NK Varazdin have been competitive away and difficult to score against recently, and the most recent meeting between the sides went to the hosts. I am not comfortable calling this a certainty. The available prices do not offer a recommendation I can stand behind with the confidence this fixture demands. No Bet.