Holywell vs The New Saints Prediction

Right, so we've got Holywell hosting The New Saints on 9 October, and if you've been following the form book, this one looks like it's going to be a bit of a one-sided affair.

The New Saints are flying, mate. Five wins from their last five, and I'm not talking about 1-0 scrapers here. They've scored 21 goals in that run and conceded just 2. The 9-0 thrashing of Cambrian & Clydach on 3 October was the latest proof, but before that they were hitting 3-1 at Trefelin, 2-1 at home to Llandudno, 5-0 to Flint Town United, and 2-0 at Airbus UK. Ten wins from ten going back to 14 August. That's not a team that's had a good stretch; that's a team that's on another planet.

And it's not just at home. Over their last 20 away games, The New Saints have won 14, drawn 2 and lost 4, scoring 2.05 per game and conceding just 0.85. They've kept 9 clean sheets on the road. That's a team that travels well and doesn't get rattled.

Now, Holywell. Look, I'm not going to sugarcoat it. Four losses from their last five. They've scored 3 goals in that stretch and conceded 11. The 0-5 defeat to Colwyn Bay at home on 15 September was a real eye-opener, and the 0-1 loss at Haverfordwest County after that wasn't much better. Going back ten games, it's 0 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses. They've scored 11 and conceded 29. That's a team that's struggling to find a rhythm, let alone a winning one.

Their home record over 20 games is 10 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses, with 2.75 scored per game, so they've had their days at home. But the last 13 months of that record include some of the games we've just seen, and the current form is pointing firmly the wrong way.

The matchup table tells the story clearly. The New Saints' away numbers (14W 2D 4L, 2.2 points per game, 0.85 conceded per game) sit comfortably ahead of Holywell's home numbers (10W 4D 6L, 1.7 points per game, 1.75 conceded per game). On most of those lines, the visitors are the stronger side.

The one thing that keeps this from being a complete foregone conclusion is that there's no head-to-head record between these two. No meetings on record, so we can't point to a history of one side dominating the other. And Holywell have shown they can score at home – 2.75 per game over 20 fixtures – so it's not like they're completely toothless in front of their own crowd.

But here's the thing that really catches my eye for the bet: The New Saints have had 4 of their last 5 games go over 2.5 goals, and 7 of their last 10. Holywell have had 3 of their last 5 and 7 of their last 10 go over 2.5. When you combine a team scoring 4.2 per game with a team conceding 2.2 per game, the total is going to be well above three. The only way this stays under is if The New Saints go quiet for once and Holywell don't pick up a goal, which is a pretty tall order given what we've seen.

The market prices over 2.5 at 1.17, implying about 85% chance. My own read, looking at the scoring and conceding numbers, puts it a touch higher than that. I'm comfortable saying I rate it above 88%.

Key Points:

• The New Saints have won all 5 of their last 5 games, scoring 21 and conceding 2

• Holywell have lost 4 of their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 11

• The New Saints' away record: 14W 2D 4L in 20 games, 0.85 conceded per game

• No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides

• 4 of The New Saints' last 5 games and 3 of Holywell's last 5 went over 2.5 goals

So there you have it. The form is screaming one way, the numbers back it up, and the price is there. I'm going with over 2.5 goals at 1.17.