Holywell vs The New Saints Prediction

The New Saints are rolling into this one on a five-game winning run, and the numbers are almost comical. In their last five matches they've scored 21 goals and conceded just 2, including a 9–0 thrashing of Cambrian & Clydach at home on 3 October and a 3–1 win on the road at Trefelin on 26 September. Stretch it out to ten games and it's 10 wins from 10, with 36 goals scored and only 5 conceded. On the road specifically, their record over 20 away games is 14 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, with 9 clean sheets and an average of 0.85 goals conceded per game. This is a side that scores in virtually every match they play.

Holywell, poor little pups, are having a rough patch. Their last five games produced 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, with 3 goals scored and 11 conceded. The 0–5 home defeat to Colwyn Bay on 15 September and the 0–1 loss at Haverfordwest County on 18 September really sting. Their home record over 20 games (stretching back 13 months) shows 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses, but those older results dilute the picture of a side that has not won in ten matches. There are no head-to-head meetings on record between these two, so we're flying blind on the fixture history.

Now, the obvious counter-argument: Holywell failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches and in 2 of their last 10. That 0–5 home loss is a reminder that they can be completely shut out, and against a side scoring 4.2 goals per game, the game could look very one-sided. The market prices both teams to score at 33.33%, which tells you the bookies think Holywell are unlikely to find the net against such a potent attack. And honestly, that's a fair point. The New Saints' dominance could mean Holywell are pinned back for 90 minutes.

But here's where I think the market is underpricing the little guy. The New Saints have scored in all 10 of their last 10 games and in 17 of their 20 away matches. They're not just winning; they're scoring. And Holywell, despite the recent dip, have scored in 8 of their last 10 games and in 17 of their 20 home games. Even in their rough patch, they found the net in 3 of their last 5. A side that scores in nearly every game away meets a side that scores in most of its home games. The blank sheet from either side is the outlier, not the norm.

Key Points:

• The New Saints have won their last 5 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 2

• Holywell have not won in their last 10 matches, but have scored in 8 of those 10

• The New Saints have scored in all 10 of their last 10 games and 17 of 20 away games

• Holywell have scored in 17 of their 20 home games

• No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides

I'm going with both teams to score at 3.00. The New Saints will almost certainly find the net, and Holywell's home scoring record says they've got enough to get one on the board. The market is treating this as a one-sided affair, but the numbers say both sides have the tools to score. Let's back the pups to get a goal on the board.