Horsham vs Maidstone Utd Prediction

Horsham and Maidstone Utd meet at Horsham's ground on 10 October in the National League South, and the numbers tell a story that the market has already absorbed.

The strongest football case points to Maidstone Utd. Their away record over the last 20 games is 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses, with 1.65 points per game, 1.55 goals scored per game and 1.1 conceded per game. Horsham's home record over the same span sits at 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses, 1.35 points per game, 1.45 scored and 1.3 conceded. The matchup table has Maidstone ahead on every meaningful line: more wins, higher points per game, more goals scored, fewer goals conceded, more clean sheets and fewer games without a goal. In the last 10 matches across all venues, Maidstone have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 (1.7 PPG), while Horsham have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 (1.3 PPG). The edge is clear in the numbers.

The counter-argument is that both sides are in rough recent shape. Horsham's last five is 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with a 1–2 defeat at Plymouth Parkway on 3 October and a 1–4 home loss to Chesham United on 12 September. Maidstone Utd have lost their last two — 1–2 at home to Truro City and 0–2 at home to Cray Wanderers — and their last five is 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses. The head-to-head adds little to the equation: the only meeting within the last 12 months was a 0–0 draw at Horsham's ground in April 2026. The older meetings, where Horsham won three of four, are historical record and do not carry weight as current form.

So the football says Maidstone are the stronger side, but the market has already priced them at 2.07 (48.31% implied). My own reading of the evidence — the away record, the last-10 comparison, the clean-sheet and scoring splits — lands at roughly 45 to 47 percent for an away win. That is at or below the market's figure, which means there is no value to be had at that price. The other markets tell a similar story: under 2.5 sits around 50 percent in both teams' records, BTTS no is roughly 40 percent, and the draw is a coin-flip at best. None of the available prices offer a margin I can honestly back.

Key Points:

• Maidstone Utd's away record (9W 6D 5L in 20 games, 1.65 PPG) outperforms Horsham's home record (7W 6D 7L, 1.35 PPG) on every key metric.

• Both teams are in poor recent form: Horsham 1W 2D 2L in the last five, Maidstone Utd 1W 1D 3L.

• The only recent head-to-head meeting (April 2026) was a 0–0 draw; older meetings are historical and do not inform current form.

• The market's 48.31% implied probability for Maidstone Utd to win aligns closely with the football evidence, leaving no exploitable gap.

Verdict: No Bet — the available prices do not offer value against the football evidence, and discipline is part of long-term profit.