Huesca vs Cadiz Prediction

Alright, let's have a butcher's at this one. Huesca are bang in trouble, sitting 20th and in the relegation mire. Cadiz are comfortably mid-table in 11th, but they're not exactly pulling up any trees either. This has all the makings of a proper scrap.

Huesca are having a right nightmare at home. They've not won in their last four at their own gaff, shipping two goals a game on average. They drew 1-1 with the league leaders Racing Santander, which shows they can dig in, but they also got turned over 4-1 by Valladolid and 2-1 by Cordoba. They're scoring – just about – with a goal a game at home, but they can't keep the back door shut.

Cadiz are a funny old side. One week they're beating second-placed Castellón 2-0, the next they're losing at home to Granada. They've lost their last two, 1-2 to Granada and 0-1 to Albacete, so they'll be keen to stop the rot. On their travels, they're good for a goal or two – 1.6 on average – but they let in just as many. Their last five away games have been proper entertainers: 2-2 at Deportivo, a 2-1 win at Zaragoza, and a 3-2 cup loss at Real Murcia.

When these two meet, Cadiz usually come out on top. They've won five of the last nine, including the last two meetings 1-0 and 4-0. But here's the thing for this weekend: both teams love a goal. Huesca have seen both teams score in 60% of their last ten, and Cadiz are even more reliable for it at a whopping 80%. Huesca's defence at home is leaky, and Cadiz's attack on the road is decent. It's a recipe for goals at both ends.

The bookies have 'Both Teams to Score - Yes' at 2.18. That's telling us they think there's a 46% chance. But looking at the form, I reckon it's much more likely than that. Huesca need points desperately and will have to go for it, which will leave gaps for Cadiz to exploit. Cadiz are too open at the back to keep a clean sheet, especially away from home.

Key Points:

Huesca are winless in four at home, conceding 2 goals per game on average.

Cadiz have lost their last two but score 1.6 goals per away game.

Both teams have scored in 60% of Huesca's and 80% of Cadiz's last ten matches.

Head-to-head favours Cadiz, but recent form points to an open game.

• The value bet looks to be on both teams finding the net.

Summary: It's a big game for Huesca at the bottom, but their defence is too shaky to trust. Cadiz are inconsistent but carry a threat. With both sides likely to score and the odds offering decent value, the smart money is on goals at both ends.